SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF THE Atlantic Ocean image shows at 2100 Z DEC 7 2014 the following --------TWO North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm--------- One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 51.00 N 58.00 W One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 38.00 N 70.00 W --------------------------TWO Tropical Low Pressure System--------------- One Tropical Low Pressure System that is located at 33.00 N 59.00 W One Tropical Low Pressure System that is located at 27.00 N 59.00 W ----------------------------THREE Tropical Waves-------------------------- One Tropical wave that is located at 31.00 N 76.00 W to 28.00 N 79.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 26.00 N 74.00 W to 23.00 N 76.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 35.00 N 58.00 W to 16.00 N 62.00 W ----------------------------GULF OF MEXICO--------------------------------- AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO 27N90W TO 25N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WHICH IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS IS HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. --------------------------------CARIBBEAN SEA------------------------------ A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS RIDGE...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. NW SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS UP TO 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO 15N64W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH...WITH E WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT S OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLIES COVER THE BASIN. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTION EXCEPT OVER THE SW BASIN. -----------------------------------HISPANIOLA--------------------------------- NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CONUS IS COMBINING WITH DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FAST MOVING SMALL SHOWER OR UPSLOPE SHOWERS. THESE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. --------------------------------ATLANTIC OCEAN-------------------------- AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO N FL NEAR 29N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 29N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 21N75W INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS SE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SUPPORTS A BROAD 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANOTHER LOW NEAR 34N59W SOUTH THROUGH THE 1004 MB LOW TO 21N59W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS DISPLACED E OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...SUPPORTED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND 59W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 30W TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N AND 28N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE IN THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE TOWARD 35N55W WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING S OF 31 ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING S OF THE SURFACE LOW.
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 23:18:27 +0000
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