SCENARIOS for a POST-CHARLIE-HEBDO-ATTACK WORLD: I write this to help me (and perhaps you) process these recent events. I write this with, I hope, as little bias as possible other than, of course, that I hope for the most peaceful, sustainable outcome in the end. I do not think we are going to get there easily. CONTEXT: We know that Europe and Islam have been warring for centuries, most explicitly for two centuries during the Middle Ages when the Catholic Church authorized war upon Islam in the name of Christianity and to seek to reclaim control (unsuccessfully, it turned out) of the Holy Land/Jerusalem, The Crusades. We know that the European empires eventually took control of much of the world, including the Islamic/Middle Eastern lands, during the most recent few centuries, with national independence movements only succeeding with the break-up of the various empires since World War 2. We know about the history of the Jewish people and the creation of the state of Israel and the related issues regarding Palestine, Jerusalem sovereignty, the Temple Mount, etc. We know about the split between the Shia and Sunni factions of Islam and the resulting tensions and wars within the Islamic world. We know about the rise of the wealth, enlightenment philosophy and politics, and modernity of the West and dislike of and resistance to it from amongst some in the Islamic world (and many other places). We know about the emergence of the age of oil and the subsequent discoveries and development of the oil industry in the oil-saturated, often Islamic nations. We know about the rise of philosophical and then radical action movement Islamic fundamentalism, including most recently the radical Islamic terrorism of the different strands and visions of Al Qaeda and ISIS/ISIL, etc. And we know about the strategy of radical Islam to seek to provoke the West into un-nuanced anti-Islamic response as a way to help recruit more support for radical Islamism. We know those things. And we in the West well understand all of those issues and strands of history because either the West was involved directly in them or we have had similar conflicts and tensions within the West and with other parts of the world ourselves. So, in the brew of history and complexity, here are a few scenarios of what could play out: SCENARIO ONE: WAR WORLD A clash of civilizations between the Islamic World and the West leads to a world war by 2035. Radical Islamic fundamentalism -- just like all religious fundamentalism -- is a toxic blend of (a) a vision for everyone (!!!) coming to know the truth that they believe they have come to see, (b) faith-based rather than evidence-based decision-making, thereby cutting off the possibility of compromise, negotiation, and an evolving understanding of the world -- which is certainly utterly antithetical to values and systems such as democracy and science, and (c) a deep sense of current and past historical grievance with a desire for revenge, (d) national environments of poverty, political corruption, ineffective governance, massive amounts of youth unemployment, and (e) the nastier aspects of human nature which can animate us all -- including mob behavior, tribalism, lust for action/violence, etc. Imagine that radical Islamic terrorists continue to provoke the West with terror attacks. That seems likely. Imagine that the general population with the help of certain parts of the Wests political leadership has ever-rising levels of anti-Islamic feelings (equating Islam with radical fundamentalist Islam), aided in this cause of course by the horrific nature of ongoing terrorist attacks. That also seems likely (and we saw what happened immediately after 9-11). Imagine that this helps radicalize increasing percentages of the Islamic world, leading to takeovers of a wide variety of governments by radical Islamists. Imagine one or more of those allied governments are tied to a particularly horrible terrorist act (Destruction of an iconic national symbol such as the Eiffel Tower, Statue of Liberty, the British Parliament, etc.... or even setting off a nuclear bomb in a major Western city?). War would begin. War would likely spread. And the Islamic world (1.5 billion strong) and the West would play out World War 3 in a massive orgy of destruction and suffering. I dont see such a war ending with the end of religious fundamentalism. Quite the contrary. At best, in this scenario, I would see an eventual cold truce (much like the Cold War) with spheres of influence over parts of the world always on the edge of a renewal of the global violence. SCENARIO TWO: COMMON ENEMY/ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS WORLD The only thing that will stop two enemies fighting is if they both perceive there to be a common enemy of even greater threat. This could conceivably be climate change and a series of somewhat- or largely-related challenges such as water crises, food crises/famines, viral pandemics (natural or bio-engineered that spin out of control), etc. In this scenario, the struggle to survive and adjust and recover could cause a sense of common human purpose that would trump that larger religious/cultural/ideological battles. SCENARIO THREE: SCI-TECH GAME CHANGERS WORLD Those of you who have watched my two most recent large-scale talks (Manifesto for a New Civilization and A Courageous Civilization) know that I point out that recent foundational progress is science and technology mean that on that basis alone I expect more change to human civilization in the next 20 - 30 years than has occurred in the past 2000 - 3000. We are getting to the elemental. Magic is becoming real. We are getting to the mysterious quantum level of matter and energy that underpins all physics and the universe. We are getting to the elemental level of understanding how to make and remake life itself. And we are getting to a transformative level of understanding of information, software, and potentially actual artificial intelligence. Taken all together, it seems to me that the chance of game-changing technological changes... and then subsequent societal changes (particularly attractive and easy to adapt to for young people, who make up an unprecedented percentage of the worlds population, particularly in many parts of the Islamic world) are more likely than not. And those new elements in the historical/contextual equation may lead to a break or a re-direction of the civilizational clash that seems to be in play. SCENARIO FOUR: ISLAMIC REFORMATION WORLD The history of established religions, while at first thought to be one of static monolithic edifices built around one core worldview, is, of course, one of great dynamism. It is true that Islam hasnt had a a recent period of mass dynamism, but that doesnt mean that it wont happen. One could make the argument that the debates about what is the true nature/essence of Islam that are occurring now amongst Muslims all over the world is the precursor to a period of great dynamism, leading to a reformation and/or consensus that takes violent fundamentalism much more off the table. Such an Islamic reformation could markedly set the world off the path of seemingly inevitable war. FINAL COMMENTS: I am not entirely convinced that societies must go through certain stages of development before moving to the next stage. However, a careful view of history, has me largely convinced. The West went through phases of its own development before coming to its relatively established core value-set around democracy, freedom of expression (including religious tolerance), and evidence-based inquiry. Those phases included long period of religious fundamentalism battling with more open-minded values. Economic development and the triumph of non-religious-focused education went hand in hand with those changes. Perhaps the Islamic world has to go through this phase to get to the other side. And, as we know from the history of the West, that transition is not likely to be a pretty nor smooth one. Credit: Jim Clark
Posted on: Sat, 10 Jan 2015 18:55:59 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015