SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: For several days, we have been watching a POTENT weather system that will be moving into the area EARLY Monday morning. Severe thunderstorms, including the possibility of tornadoes, are possible during the DARK early Monday. THE SETUP: The setup for this severe weather event includes a rapid return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a REALLY STRONG jet stream ripping into the Southern Plains/Mid-south. At the same time, a cold front will be sweeping through the area on Monday morning, which will lead most of the thunderstorm activity during the morning hours. Low-level winds out of the SSE will be another ingredient to produce rotating storms. THE THREATS: From the looks of this system, we are expecting a line of thunderstorms, also known as a squall-line. Therefore the main threat will be damaging winds from these storms. BUT I dont believe this will be a solid line of storms, it will be more of what we call a QLCS, which stands for Quasi-Linear Convective System... I know, fancy name right?!?! This is where the line of storms is broken and some isolated cells could develop ahead of the line. The point is, MOST of our tornado events in NWA come from these QLCS events (i.e. April 10, 2008, March 19, 2012, October 13, 2012 (Rogers tornado)). As the instability rapid surges northward and moves into area early Monday morning, the SSE low level winds will be MOVING at nearly 40 mph about 2,500 feet above the ground. This will provide the necessary low-level shear to produce tornadoes within the squall-line (known as embedded supercells). At this point, it appears the highest threat for tornadoes will be farther south in the RV and Ouachitas, but the threat is NOT zero in NWA. Another threat besides tornadoes will be hail and flash flooding due to heavy rainfall rates. THE TIMING: Get ready for a stormy morning Monday. It appears the timing of this event will be in between 4 AM to 9 AM for the viewing area. The timing could change by a few hours depending on the speed of the system, but a morning (during the DARK) severe weather event for our viewing area looks likely. There could also be a few isolated storms during the early afternoon directly under the low. I will be in early Monday morning (around 4 AM and earlier if needed) to help Clint cover his LAST severe weather event for KNWA/FOX 24. We will have several storm spotters deployed in the early morning hours tracking the worst storms as they move into the area. The weather will get quiet after the cold front moves through by early Monday afternoon at the latest, followed by beautiful fall-like weather for the rest of the week. Keep it here with your Weather Authority... well keep you up to date with the latest.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 00:25:25 +0000