SGF issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) 296 FXUS63 KSGF 161957 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 The unseasonable cool air mass for the middle of July will remain over the region through the end of the week. Highs in the 70s, with a few readings in the upper 60s not out of the question with an increase in cloud cover, and lows in the 50s will continue through Friday. An upper level shortwave trough is currently diving to the southeast into the Plains this afternoon. An area of showers with embedded thunder has develop ahead of this feature across central Kansas into eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. The upper level shortwave will push southeast across the Central Plains tonight and Thursday, and then will push east across the region Thursday night and Friday. The area of showers will continue to spread east and will start to spread into extreme southeastern Kansas late tonight into Thursday morning then will slowly spread east across mainly southern Missouri during the day on Thursday. The shortwave trough and rainfall will slowly spread east into Friday exiting the region by Friday evening. The best coverage and higher rainfall amounts with this system will be south of the area in Oklahoma and Arkansas, with the northern edge of this just clipping extreme southeastern and southern Missouri, or south of a Pittsburg Kansas to Springfield to West Plains Missouri line. There could still be a few light showers or sprinkles at times north of this line but fell most of the rainfall will remain to the south of the line. Instability will overall remain on the low side, but there could still be some embedded rumbles of thunder at times, mainly across southern Missouri as this system slowly spreads east across the region. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 An upper level ridge will begin to spread east into the Plains this weekend into next week. This will result in a warming trend beginning Saturday as highs warm into the low to mid 80s, then into the upper 80s to low 90s by early next week. An upper level disturbance may push south into the region early next week bringing some chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1145 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 Surface ridge overhead and will only move slightly to the east during the next 24 hour period. An upper level shortwave will track southeast and into the area late tonight and into Thursday. Some light rain or sprinkles will be possible over the western CWA including the JLN terminal on Thursday morning, but the precipitation will be fighting the drier air mass and am not expecting anything other than VFR conditions through the period. Have also kept surface winds light and variable through the period with the surface ridge essentially remaining overhead. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 A very cool airmass will settle into the region over the next few days and we will flirt, if not break a few record lows and record low high temperatures. The following is a list of the records through Thursday. Here are the forecast and record Lows across the area: Tomorrow Morning (7/17) Forecast Record Springfield 57 52 (1976) Joplin 58 53 (1967) West Plains 56 54 (1990) Vichy 55 56 (1967) Here are the forecast and record cool highs across the area: Tomorrow Afternoon (7/17) Forecast Record Springfield 72 70 (1900) Joplin 70 76 (1950) West Plains 74 78 (1989 and 2000) Vichy 76 75 (2009) && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Wise/Runnels
Posted on: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 19:57:34 +0000
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