SIEGE OF LUGANSK ENDS With the attempts to encircle the city ended and the shelling apparently brought to a stop some vestiges of normal life are apparently returning to Lugansk. en.itar-tass/world/748275 Shelling of Donetsk however continues. Elsewhere the military situation remains fluid but the direction of events is clear. 1. Contrary to what I thought a day or so ago it seems Donetsk airport has not fully fallen but that the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison there are tightly surrounded. Presumably they will surrender shortly unless they decide to go down fighting, which for their sake I sincerely hope is not the case. 2. There are what look like reliable reports that the NAF has penetrated to the centre of Mariupol. The juntas troops in Mariupol seem to be relatively few in number and consist almost entirely of poorly trained right wing militias. If there is no ceasefire then Mariupols fall is surely a matter of time. 3. The Ukrainian army remains in control of Debratselvo. These appear to be regular troops of a much better calibre but they too are at risk of encirclement. Petri Kohn has written an interesting piece in which he claims that all the regular formations of the Ukrainian army have been destroyed. That may be an exaggeration. There are still some Ukrainian regulars defending Debratselvo and there were reports some weeks ago of the junta positioning troops near the Crimea which caused a brief flap that the junta was planning to launch an attack there. Presumably these troops are still there. However the overall impression is of a military collapse with the numbers in both men and material having either equalised or shifted in favour of the NAF.
Posted on: Fri, 05 Sep 2014 11:52:22 +0000
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