***** SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT LIKELY FOR MOST OF QUEENSLAND, NEW SOUTH WALES & POSSIBILY VICTORIA***** INDEPTH WRITE UP OF THIS COMING RAIN EVENT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTH EASTERN AUSTRALIA. FEEL FREE TO SHARE/TAG WITH FAMILY AND FRIENDS. We can lock it in now it is becoming likely that widespread rain event WILL impact large parts of eastern and south eastern Australia starting from tomorrow but more in particular Thursday/Friday and the weekend. The system will develop thanks to the cold front that moved through south eastern Australia last weekend, this front has cold upper air attached to it and in turn develop an upper trough over south eastern Australia. WEDNESDAY: The upper trough will turn into an upper low tomorrow and sit near the SA/NSW border while a strong high of 1042hPa sits in the Bight. A surface trough will develop in response to this upper low which will feed moisture into the system from the north and east. Where scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms may develop, across parts of QLD & northern NSW and near the upper low near the SA/NSW border. THURSDAY: Showers will tend to rain in parts of central and southern inland Queensland as well as northern parts of NSW, isolated thunderstorms is also a chance. Showers will also increase in eastern parts of Queensland especially on and near the coast and adjacent ranges, Few showers will also persist about the central and north coast of NSW. Some of this activity will move south west and impact some parts of the North east pastoral district in South Australia, Flinders and eastern parts of the North west Pastoral district. FRIDAY: The trough will continue to deepen and develop into a surface low over north west NSW in response to the upper low. Rain will become more widespread across southern and central Qld with moderate to locally heavy falls possible. This rain will start to push into south east Queensland later in the day more so overnight into Saturday. Showers will continue in eastern parts of Qld ahead of the rain with decent falls expected especially near the coast as moist north east winds feed into the trough. Isolated thunderstorms are possible mostly on and near the trough further inland. IN NSW: Rain and showers will become more widespread from the north about inland area west of the ranges and slowly spread south during the day. Moderate to heavy falls possible about northern parts. Isolated showers will continue about the central and north coast. VIC: Few showers or patchy rain may reach far north western parts of Victoria by Friday night. SA: Some shower activity should continue in the North east Pastoral district of South Australia, Mid north, Riverland & Flinders district. Isolated thunderstorms are a chance too in these areas. SATURDAY: The low should continue to move slowly south east as the trough continues to move east towards the central Qld coast, anywhere east and south of the trough showers and rain will continue with decent falls expected, isolated thunderstorms are likely as well with Brisbane seeing the wettest weather on this day. Rain will gradually taper off during the day over southern inland (west of the ranges) as it contracts east but drizzle and light showers may persist following the rain. NSW: This should be the wettest day for NSW state wide with areas of rain across most of the state and isolated thunderstorms possible too especially about northern and central parts. Rain should gradually ease in far western and northern western parts during the day but like southern QLD light showers or drizzle may persist. Could see some decent falls accumulate. VICTORIA: Areas of rain should be prevalent on Saturday in Victoria especially on and north of the ranges, some of this rain should seep into southern areas during the day as the low tracks slowly south east. SA: Showers and drizzle will continue about parts of the north eastern pastoral district, Mid North, Riverland & Flinders district. SUNDAY: The trough will gradually push off the coast of south east Qld during the day as well as north and central coast of NSW later in the day and ease the rain and showers for much of these districts, however due to presence of the low over south eastern NSW or northern east Victoria showers and rain will continue near this low especially south and east of the low itself. The low will move off the coast of NSW or eastern Bass straight early next week but direct further widespread showers about the south coast of NSW and Gippsland in Victoria. At this stage the bulk of the weather should remain east and north of Tasmania with only some scattered shower activity expected in northern and eastern parts on Sunday & Monday in particular but if things change with the low edging even more further south we will revaluate our forecast for Tasmania over the coming days. RAINFALL TOTALS: Inland parts of Qld and NSW should see widespread 20-60mm with higher falls possible in few areas. Northern and eastern parts of Victoria may see 15-30mm with locally heavier falls possible. Some coastal areas of NSW and Qld may see 50mm+ with south east Qld and north eastern NSW also should do well from this system with Brisbane likely to see 50mm+ The areas we mentioned in South Australia may also see 10 to 20mm over those days. (Slightly heavier falls are possible of the low tracks further west initially) Very interesting few days coming up as we will continue to monitor this system closely over the coming days. Image one: GFS model (Global forecasting model) accumulated rainfall in mms for the next 7 days. Image two: CMC model (Canadian model) rainfall accumulation for the week. Image three: ALL models put together consensus and coming out with an average rainfall distribution for this event.
Posted on: Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:06:30 +0000
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