SILA AMBIL PERHATIAN... Today’s 06Z JMA Warning and Summary map was rather unusual: four tropical cyclones were active across the Western Pacific. First, Tropical Depression Utor–yes, the same typhoon than made landfall in China’s Guangdong province on Wednesday–continues to dump heavy rain in portions of southern China and northern Vietnam. Observations across Guangdong, Hunan, and Guangxi provinces have reported rainfall between 50-90 mm (2.0-3.5 inches). Of course, this area has been impacted by Bebinca in June, Rumbia in early July, a depression in mid July, Jebi in late July, Mangkhut in early August, and now Utor for the past 5 days. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Utor will be moving anywhere too quickly. Models suggest that Utor will continue to sit and spin over this region for a few more days before dissipating, dumping yet more rainfall to this region. Second, Tropical Depression “B”–also numbered 13W by JTWC–is fizzling out SE of Shanghai. JMA and JTWC have both stopped issuing advisories on the depression. JMA has relegated the system to the Warning and Summary bulletin. Current satellite shows a naked swirl with the majority of the convection to the northwest of the center. This system should be moving inland over the next day as it tracks west and west-southwest, bringing rain showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to portions of eastern China. Third, Tropical Storm Trami–numbered 12W by JTWC–is located about 640 km south of Okinawa. Trami, going by Maring in the Philippines, is spreading showers and thunderstorms over northern Luzon. Trami is expected to curve northward before moving west toward Taiwan. Models suggest it should stay south of Okinawa, but it may bring increased showers as it passes. Right now, the majority of the models hint of Trami affecting Taipei before making landfall in eastern China. At this time, I’m not expecting a significant change in strength either way. Fourth, Severe Tropical Storm Pewa–numbered 01C by JTWC and CPHC–crossed the International Dateline earlier this evening. Honolulu’s CPHC gave the hand-off to Tokyo’s JMA after Pewa crossed 180°. Models are indicating that we’ll be talking about Pewa for several more days and it continues to intensify. Right now, as it tracks toward the northwest, the only land threat is Wake Island. High pressure should force a recurvature, keeping Guam and the Mariana Islands out of the threat. For fun… looking at the extended GFS shows the Pewa, albeit weak, could be approaching northern Japan (likely as an extratropical low) during the first week of September.
Posted on: Mon, 19 Aug 2013 08:18:19 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015