SNOW ACCUMULATION UPDATE... *WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY* *FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA (DC AREA) AND EAST OF I-64 AND 95 TONIGHT* ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 IS FOR **TONIGHT** Ive already been asked the question since the advisory map was posted isnt it too warm to snow today?... Remember, this is a two part system. Rain today with the clipper energy, then colder air moves into the area by this evening, the coastal low develops and we get wrap around moisture tonight through tomorrow morning. Adjustments are being made to this package. The latest trend from our short-term guidance has been to shift a good swath of snow across the I-95 Corridor overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. High confidence that widespread amounts of 1 inch on average seems likely tonight into early Tuesday morning. Higher amounts across the far Northern Neck, Eastern Shore and Northern Virginia. Rain will be off and on today..... Northwest of a Charlottesville to Fredericksburg line, it will likely mix with rain and snow, especially this afternoon as colder air moves into the area. Across far Northern and Northwestern Virginia and along the West Virginia State Line, the precipitation will stay mainly snow as the colder air continues to move into the area. It remains rain south of this line. Later this afternoon, the precipitation may be on the drizzly side as the transfer of the upper level energy and coastal low takes shape. Snow and rain will likely develop around dusk, but change to all snow between 8 to 10 PM tonight along and East of I-95. As the coastal low strengths and moves Northward, wrap around takes place. Latest models show light to moderate snow from 10 PM tonight through 7 to 9 AM tomorrow morning. Temperatures across Metro Richmond will drop between 29 to 31 degrees, with colder temperatures to the North. Slick spots are likely in the morning and secondary roads, bridges and overpasses could become snow covered, especially in bands of snow that persists over the same areas for several hours. Between 8 to 10 AM, the snow should push off towards the coast, but the far Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula and Eastern Shore may see snow showers through early afternoon. Also, depending on how far the coastal low tracks West, throws moisture and bands of heavier snow will determine amounts. This is why we have Tappahannock to Fredericksburg to East of I-95 of Northern Virginia and the DC area in 2 to 4 inches of snow. We think 2 to 3 on average, but isolated amounts could receive as much as 4 inches. Across the Far Northern Eastern Shore, snow may linger there the longest and closer to the coastal storm, so we have amounts there in the 3 to 6 inch range. Because of the energy transfer (Low takes shape and cuts off precipitation farther West), it looks like the Southern Piedmont and into portions of the New River Valley will likely miss out on this snow. But a few snow showers or flurries are possible, with a very light coating of accumulation at most.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 13:11:51 +0000
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