SO...ABOUT NEXT WEEK... Yes...there has been a lot of talk about the sudden shift in the trends for next Monday/Tuesday (And saying that theres been a lot of talk is a MAJOR understatement). To understand why this is significant, lets set up the back story, shall we? ***Now, before I begin...I would like to put up a disclaimer. This is NOT...I repeat...is NOT a forecast from me. This is merely an analysis of the most recent shift in the model trends that has arisen. As a meteorologist, I have learned not to put all of my eggs into one proverbial basket. As such, I want to see what the next suite of models runs has to say before I really get into any talks about accumulation amounts and impacts on the region.*** Earlier this week, your South Jersey weather trio (Dan, Nick, and myself) has been saying that we were ready to embark on a rather active stretch of weather, and so far, that has proven true. Round 1 was last Wednesday, and round 2 was just yesterday. Round 3s time frame hasnt really changed, but one detail has: The system itself. Initially and even up until this morning, the third system in this line was expected to mimic low #1...meaning that we would have another clipper system rush through the area and give us a quick few inches of snow (No more than 2-3 initially). This morning, the late night and AM model runs continued that trend nicely. Then, the afternoon suite of model runs arrived. Several factors arose to cause such a drastic shift, with one of them being a feature that would inhibit a fast departure. The feature in question is a blocking area of high pressure to our northeast. This was something that was absent in the first two events...hence the fleeting nature of each low. With the afternoon runs in place (And in two cases, the evening runs), a blocking area of high pressure was brought into the picture. Immediately, that brings up a red flag. With a block like this in place, the progression of such a low is slowed down...even stalled at times...and that allows for a longer lasting event. Between all of the major models, there are a few differences. Most noticeably, there is an intensity difference, and that plays a HUGE factor in what we see. Of the four (The European (Euro), Canadian (GEM), American (GFS), and North American Model (NAM)), the Euro has been the most robust solution. Not only does this model stall our low just off the eastern seaboard, but it also rapidly intensifies this low. This yields the highest snow potential for the region as well. The other three models show a similar solution, but the intensification rate is far less rapid than what the Euro shows. One similarity that arises between each solution is the timing. Precipitation moves into the area through the afternoon on Monday, becoming heavier through the night and into the morning on Tuesday. From there, the GFS tapers things off the fastest, with the Euro and GEM models being a little slow on the lows departure. So while there is agreement on a few aspects of this upcoming event, several other details (Some of which are arguably more important than others), remain questionable at best. This is an incredible shift in the forecast...the likes of which I really havent ever seen. The next set of model runs (00z and 12z respectively) will be crucial in terms of telling us whether this was a fluke or not. Keep an eye out for updates from Dan, Nick, and myself. Well keep you all covered as best as we can!
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 02:38:42 +0000
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