SOME THOUGHTS ON THE SCOTTISH REFERENDUM - FRASER MACMILLAN Heres a few words from my Dad - Fraser MacMillan - about the upcoming referendum - he doesnt have Facebook so Im posting on his behalf. Please take the time to read it, and if you have any comments - agree/disagree, please add them at the bottom! And dont forget to like/share too - wed like to get as much reach as possible... Scotland is facing one of the most important events in its history and in the history of the modern world, a referendum on peaceful separation from a larger state. For this alone we should be immensely proud, but with it comes the responsibility of all of us to play our part in this momentous decision. It is our responsibility as Scottish citizens to make a deeply considered decision, whether that be yes or no, to cast our vote and determine the future of our country. The difficulty is in knowing how to decide, how to see beyond the political spin, telling you what the questions are and the answers each side want you to hear, how to see past the personalities of the leading lights of each side, to get a clearer view of the real issues and therefore how best to vote. I have no political affiliations to influence my vote. I am by nature analytical and am looking to understand what the real and fundamental issues are to inform me and enable me to decide. I do not believe the real issues are to do with any pro or anti English feelings or sense of shared history, nor do I believe they are to do with staying with the status quo through a fear of change. To vote based on a fear of change is to overlook the failings of the past under a UK government and ignore the opportunities of the future under an independent Scottish government. In this modern ever changing world we must continuously examine the relevance of our governance structures to current challenges and opportunities. So I believe the real question facing us is: What gives Scotland the best chance of a better future - an independent Scottish government, or staying with a UK government? I have tried to listen to both sides and gauge their proposals in relation to that question. The Yes campaign have put forward a white paper and espoused numerous improvements in the way they would manage our resources for a better and fairer Scotland. However I find it difficult to get any positive proposals from the No campaign as to how they would change things for the better. This makes balancing the arguments more difficult. However having ever the analytical mind, and bearing in mind the historic importance of the question, I have tried, and this is my take on matters. The way democracy works is that the sitting government marshals the resources of their domain primarily for the benefit of the majority. The UK has a population of approximately 64 million of whom around 5 million are Scots. We are, and always will be, in the minority to such an extent that our votes have no real effect on who wins the UK elections (as the Yes campaign say, since 1951 we have had 35 years of Tory rule we didnt vote for). There is therefore no incentive for UK governments, of whatever persuasion, to look out for us now or in the future. This is simply the way democracy works, minorities are and always will be at the bottom end of the priority list. So from the point of view of how majority rule government works, I would have to vote for an independent government to ensure Scotlands future becomes top priority. However whilst an independent government would govern Scotland for Scots, can we survive as an independent nation in future, or do we need the support of the rest of the UK? When taking the oil revenue into account, Scotland has for decades contributed more to the UK coffers than it has received. Moreover both sides of the argument agree that Scotland would be a wealthy nation if it were independent, not only because of the oil, but also on the strength of its economic base. So yes, we can survive without the support of the rest of the UK, pay for all our public services, free education, pensions, and invest our wealth to address Scotlands needs and aspirations. But what happens when the oil runs out? Scotland has problems that need to be dealt with whether by a UK or independent Scottish government. These include an unacceptably high level of poverty (how is it possible we need to have food banks), an ageing population, and a disproportionally high level of public sector employment. Scotland needs investment to create private sector jobs to create more wealth to address these and other problems and give us a better future. The oil windfall could be used to fund this. My question is who is best motivated to do this, a UK government who have used the windfall to date to offset profligate spending and to whom we are way down the priority list, or a Scottish government where we are top priority. In my view we are both better off democratically with an independent government, and have enough wealth to address our problems and go it alone. There will however be problems to overcome and costs to bear not least of which is the currency, and membership of bigger clubs such as the EU for trade and NATO for defence. The real issue is whether or not these problems are insurmountable. As far as currency goes it seems to me to be contrary to the UK governments economic interest to deny Scotland the use of the pound in a currency union, as such a high proportion of trade is done between the two countries. This together with the acknowledged strength of an independent Scottish economy would surely stabilise the pound, whereas losing Scotlands economic strength would possibly weaken it. The sabre rattling of both camps on this issue seems to be nothing more than negotiating stand points on the distribution of assets and liabilities to a newly independent Scotland. However should Scotland be denied the use of the pound as a common currency then as Alastair Darling conceded Scotland could use the pound independently. This would protect our exchange rate and current trading relationships. What we would lose would be the Bank of England as lender of last resort. But what does this really mean? Scotland would only need this last resort if it mismanaged its finances as badly as the UK government did in recent years, and in that event we would have other lenders to go to, as other countries operating their currency without a central bank do. There are also other options such as the Euro or our own independent currency. We will have a currency to spend. So whilst there may be issues to address, I believe there is more political hype than actual threat in using the pound in or out of a currency union. Membership of the EU for trade reasons is desirable. So how best do we protect that relationship, stay with a UK government promising an in/out referendum to an increasingly UKIP fuelled europhobic electorate in England, (which by virtue of their voting majority may lead to an exit), or to go with an independent Scottish government determined to stay in. The No campaign quote the terms and conditions that would hinder our membership whilst the Yes campaign say that the EU is pragmatic and a supporter of self determination. Whilst there are problems to overcome in keeping our EU membership, we will have an 18 month negotiating period prior to full separation to resolve them. On balance in my opinion, there is a greater to risk to our trade with the EU by staying in the UK. As far as membership of a defence club is concerned all agree we need to be in NATO. However the justification for the UK to maintain an independent nuclear deterrent is no longer relevant in the modern world. If there is a need for nuclear deterrents then it should be within the domain of multi national clubs such as NATO with costs spread across its membership. The current costs to Scotland of maintaining a UK nuclear deterrent can be released to be reinvested in addressing the problems our country faces. So all in all I see more to gain than lose in having an independent Scottish government and will be voting yes. These are the reasons I have for my vote, what are yours? Please consider your vote carefully, and vote for the reasons you believe give Scotland the best chance of a better future. - Fraser MacMillan
Posted on: Thu, 04 Sep 2014 10:46:54 +0000
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