SOON after the upcoming year-end festivities are over, activists from Peoples Action Party (PAP) branches and opposition parties plan to resume constituency walkabouts and house visits in earnest. They will do so with a new urgency, shifting their activities to a higher gear. While no one knows when the next General Election (GE) will be called - it must be held by January 2017 at the latest - the sense of anticipation has grown significantly. It has been heightened also by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loongs robust rallying of the troops at the PAPs 60th-anniversary conference last Sunday. Addressing 6,000 party members, the ruling partys secretary-general characterised the next election as being a deadly serious fight, and had the opposition clearly in his sights. The timing of an election, under laws inherited from the British and which are also adopted in countries like Malaysia and India, is solely at the discretion of the Prime Minister, who has absolute say on when to dissolve Parliament and call for an election. And even though PM Lee noted that the elections are still a bit off yet, several PAP activists say they are starting to update their contact lists and database of residents concerns for when the election is called. Not to be left behind, opposition parties have also stepped up their activities. The Workers Party (WP) has been on regular walkabouts to meet residents and sell its newsletter, The Hammer, in the eastern part of Singapore - its longstanding stomping ground. The Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) announced plans to launch its GE campaign on Jan 10. There are indications that PM Lee Hsien Loong will call for elections in 2015. As such, the SDP will get under way our preparations for the electoral campaign, the party said last week. Over the past months, the PAP has been putting potential candidates on the ground, understudying ministers and veteran MPs in areas such as Sembawang, Ang Mo Kio, Bishan-Toa Payoh and Tanjong Pagar. Many are already undertaking grassroots work. The party appears to be getting them involved much earlier, after feedback in the wake of GE 2011 that many of its new faces were not familiar to many residents. Two months ago, the Elections Department said about 30,000 public servants would be called up for training as election officers - but that this is part of preparations on an ongoing basis. PAP activists take a similar position. Branch members offer the line that were already preparing for the next one the day after the previous election. As Mr Khong Peng Ming, secretary of the PAPs Zhenghua branch, puts it: Its not like just because elections are coming, then we put in more effort. Otherwise, its a rush... like burning the midnight oil. I dont have any clue as to when the election will be. Neither do MPs, or civil servants. But one thing is clear to activists and analysts alike: The Prime Minister will call for the election when he thinks it is a good time to do so. The SG50 effect AS SINGAPORE kicks off its Golden Jubilee celebrations in the new year, party activists and analysts alike rule out Singaporeans going to the polls in the first half of 2015. They cite fixtures in the calendar, such as the series of SG50 events to mark Singapores 50th year of nationhood, and the Governments Budget and ensuing debate which will stretch from late February to early March. There will then be preparations for the SEA Games, which Singapore hosts from June 5 to 16. This will be followed by the lead-up to what is expected to be a grand National Day Parade and celebration of 50 years of independence. But several observers feel that the months after the National Day celebrations will be a good time for Mr Lee to head to the polls. They speculate that the next GE could be called not long after Aug 9, to ride on the feel good effect the festivities will have on voters. But the earliest possible date after PM Lees traditional National Day Rally speech in August would be late September. This is because some three weeks are needed from the time Parliament is dissolved to Polling Day. Political scientist Lam Peng Er of the National University of Singapores East Asian Institute notes that National Day will be a joyous moment, with lots of rah-rah and reflection. The PAP will probably come up with the argument that Singapore would not be what it is today without the good stewardship of the ruling party, he tells Insight. Dr Derek da Cunha, the author of Breakthrough: Roadmap For Singapores Political Future, published after GE 2011, also believes the election will most likely take place in 2015. Added to the feel-good effect, he expects the Government may roll out a number of populist measures to mark the 50th-year milestone. Over the past year, the Government has already announced initiatives to address concerns over the rising cost of living, to improve its prospects with the ground, Dr da Cunha adds. He cites as examples the Pioneer Generation Package, planned changes to the Central Provident Fund (CPF) scheme, increasing the stock of available HDB flats and moderated housing prices. He also expects pre-election sweeteners in the Budget next February, and others nearer to National Day. PM Lees National Day Rally, traditionally held at the end of August, could also set the stage for the election. Three of the past 11 elections - in 1972, 1988 and 1991 - were held in August and September, within weeks of the rally. But opposition parties take a different view of going to the polls amidst National Day and SG50 fervour. Mrs Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss, secretary-general of the National Solidarity Party (NSP), says that events like next years National Day should focus on a national celebration, rather than something the PAP can capitalise on. While acknowledging it is the Governments prerogative when to call an election, she adds: I hope they wont just say that Singapore is what it is because of 50 years of PAP rule, and gloss over the sacrifices and hard work of Singaporeans. I would like Aug 9 to be a way to focus on the contributions which our citizens have made towards the countrys progress, and not a day to extol the achievements of the PAP. Starting early THAT talk of an election has taken firmer root could be simply down to the fact that parties like the PAP have been doing some things differently: the soft rollout of potential new faces on the ground, for instance, began as early as April this year. Since then, more than 20 individuals have been seen at grassroots events in the company of ministers or older MPs. In the initial stages, some were introduced and described as likely candidates. But that is no longer the case. Individuals who are being tested and assessed have been active in PM Lees Ang Mo Kio GRC, Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, as well as Sembawang GRC. PAP candidates who lost at the ballot box have also been moved to other constituencies. Surgeon Koh Poh Koon, who lost the Punggol East by-election to the WPs Lee Li Lian last year, has been seen in Ang Mo Kio GRC. Former labour movement leader Desmond Choo, who lost twice in Hougang - in 2011 and 2013 - is now helping in Tampines GRC. The presence on the ground of potential candidates suggests that the PAP is taking seriously public feedback after the 2011 GE that candidates sometimes get parachuted in or introduced with little time for residents - and party activists themselves - to get a full measure of the man. Bishan-Toa Payoh anchor minister Ng Eng Hen acknowledged as much when he told reporters earlier this year: Many Singaporeans said they prefer candidates who have spent some time on the ground before elections come. He says their involvement in activities also gives potential candidates time to get to know residents. The WP is not sitting still. It has been building up its team of candidates to contest GRCs contiguous to Aljunied GRC, including East Coast, Tampines and Marine Parade. And observers say the ratcheting up of campaign rhetoric a notch appears to be a way for the PAP to signal to voters that they should consider what is at stake. But it also offers an opportunity for the opposition to make themselves and their plans better known to voters - and to be held up to scrutiny. Mrs Chong-Aruldoss says the NSP is certainly making its preparations for the next GE. We have no choice but to work with the possibility (of a 2015 election) in mind, she adds. However, former Nominated MP Eugene Tan, a Singapore Management University law academic, tells Insight he doubts the election would take place in the first three quarters of 2015. We know that calling for elections involves strategic considerations. But for them to take place in the midst of the 50th-anniversary celebrations would distract and detract from the focal point of 2015, which is about commemorating this very important occasion in the countrys history, he says. Still, the last quarter of 2015 stretching into the new year could be one possible window. There has, however, not been a year-end election since 2001, when voters went to the ballot box on Nov 3. Four earlier general elections were called in late December - in 1976, 1980 and 1984. And in 1997 polling took place on Jan 2. The year-end used to be the favoured period. The assumption was that people would be in a good mood, with bonus payouts. But this does not seem to apply as much now. A significant number of Singaporeans also leave the country during the year-end school holidays and the Government may not be inclined to call for an election then as turnout could be lower. SMUs Associate Professor Tan also says that SG50 celebrations will tax national resources, from security personnel to the work of government departments. And the Government may also not want to risk ending the Golden Jubilee celebrations on a low note by going into what is likely to be very contentious debates about Singappore...because elections can be divisive. There is also a major exhibition being organised at the end of 2015, which would paint a vision of what the country would look like over the next 50 years. That could be a perfect set-up for a general election in 2016. May 2016? EVEN if 2015 passes by without an election being called, the Government can sit out its full term, until Parliament is dissolved when its five-year term ends in October 2016. The law allows for polls to be held up to three months after this, and the latest an election can be held would be January 2017. But observers feel an election would more likely be held in the second quarter of 2016, possibly in May, the same month in which GE 2006 and GE 2011 were held. The first few months of 2016 are to avoid holding an election in, given the Chinese New Year celebrations and the annual Budget. But waiting till later in 2016 may not be the best option either. Theres always the danger of waiting till your term is almost up, as that leaves you with very little room to manoeuvre, says Prof Tan. If your original plan is early or mid-2016, you can still delay it if conditions dont look so good. But if you wait till the end of the term, youre then dictated to as to when elections are held. Observers feel that holding the election later rather than sooner may work in the PAPs favour. It means that hot-button issues from GE2011, like housing prices and transport shortcomings, would be better resolved. This would allow the Government to present a brighter report card to voters. Stage Two of the Downtown Line linking Bukit Panjang and Bukit Timah to the city, for instance, would be completed by 2016 and more bus routes added across the island by then. Might there even be two bumper election Budgets, if polls take place after Budget 2016? Prof Tan feels both 2015 and 2016 may see Budgets that could further demonstrate the PAPs ability to manage the country well fiscally and deeply engage in long-term planning. Recent Budgets, he adds, have, after all, taken a very significant slant towards strengthening social safety nets. Keeping options open OTHERS feel the choice of a GE date remains wide open. Political watcher Zulkifli Baharudin, a former NMP, is one of those who is uncomfortable with reading the tea leaves to try and determine the election period. So are a number of party activists with the PAP and opposition. Since the PAP is the incumbent and has the prerogative to call for the election any time it wants, I would like to think that this time around, and going forward, it will use this prerogative intelligently, Mr Zulkifli tells Insight. PAP leaders have to be the judge of the best timing, he adds. You have the advantage, you do it. I dont think the PAP is going to pepper the whole thing with signs saying I will call for elections, so get prepared. We have to be prepared for surprises, he says. One common thread among those who prefer not to speculate is that the Prime Minister would want to keep his options open. Dr Lam says one consideration is the need to avoid black swan events - unpredictable and rare yet high-impact events. And the longer the delay in calling the GE, the more likely such an event could happen, he adds. Global conditions could favour the PAP too. Take GE 2001, called months after the Sept 11, 2001 terror attacks on America and amid a global downturn. That election saw the PAP returned with 75 per cent of the vote as voters saw the party as having the safest pair of hands to steer the economy through the rough patch. While tough economic times are an advantage for the incumbent, some things are also changing. A Straits Times survey in March this year found that the need for checks and balances on government, and a candidates attributes, were key factors for voters deciding who to vote for. At the next election, to a man, activists and analysts expect every seat to be contested, some more fiercely than others. This is especially for seats targeted by the WP. This is because, as observers like NUS political scientist Bilveer Singh see it, the PAP will want to ensure that the WP - with seven elected MPs - makes no further and significant electoral gains. And with contests expected to be fiercest in constituencies bordering WP-held Aljunied GRC, the timing of the election could also well hinge on how PAP leaders assess the chances of staving off the opposition making inroads in such constituencies. So will the general election be in 2015? Or sometime in 2016? At this stage, few would hazard a guess. But one thing is certain: Expect more party activity as the build-up has well and truly gotten under way. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] - See more at: straitstimes/premium/insight/story/will-it-be-ge-2015-or-2016-20141220#sthash.94PsLwNt.dpuf
Posted on: Fri, 26 Dec 2014 15:38:20 +0000
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