SPC AC 160546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A RISK FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAY OCCUR TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ...SYNOPSIS... GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW IS NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE INTO WRN QUEBEC TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND WWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE LIFTING NWD ACROSS NWRN TX INTO A LOW OVER THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDER REGION. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... REMNANTS OF ONGOING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN WY...CO AND WRN KS MAY CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND WRN/CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER STORMS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH LARGEST MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SERN CO INTO WEST TX. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN CO AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SEWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COUPLES WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING AS THEY PROGRESS SEWD WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER DARK OVER WEST TX AND WRN OK...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AS STORMS MOVE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...NEW ENGLAND... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. ...ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO NRN FL... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER PROMOTE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF A 15% WIND PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..WEISS/MOSIER.. 07/16/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1251Z (1:51PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Todays Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Posted on: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 12:52:27 +0000
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