SPC AC 171700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPPORT FOR STRONG LOWER/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A REINFORCING SURGE OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CLEAR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUT SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUALLY ADVANCING OFF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA COAST...AND SOUTH OF THE KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...MAINLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY COLD AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS OF THE NATION. ...LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO... IT DOES APPEAR PROBABLE THAT STRONG LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODEST CAPE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ...THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED...PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDS APPEARS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO NARROW PLUMES OF HEAVY SNOW...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MAINLY OVER THE LAKE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM COASTAL AREAS...UNTIL THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM. ..KERR.. 11/17/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
Posted on: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 01:53:01 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015