STATS TIME In less than a year from now a lot of international rugby teams of the world gather for another of the four yearly bun-fights we like to call the Rugby World Cup. I always find this gathering a fascinating window into the progress the game has made over the intervening four years, the changes in playing strategies and tactics, the way the rules are enforced and interpreted, and how the game is played. Leaving aside nationalities, hemispheres and my own personal bias, I like to look at where the game is today versus where it used to be. If a coach can identify a trend you can plan to exploit it, if you can see the impact of certain developments, you can develop your own strategies around them. The IRB, or now World Rugby, as they insist on being called, have meticulously recorded and published all manner of facts and statistics for each of the RWC tournaments since 1987. Having these stats from each of the RWC’s past, and some from eras before the invention of the RWC, gives us a great opportunity to see how the game has developed, and perhaps to measure where it is going. (Don’t I just love these stats!) The first 3 RWC tournaments were still firmly in the so-called amateur era, with 1995 being the watershed year where our game changed direction, and character, forever and ever. The next RWC, in 1999, was a fully professional tournament. My personal interest in the RWC’s only took off in ’95 when:- a) South Africa were readmitted to the world and thus participated in the RWC and, b) I had two of my players in the SA squad (Kobus Wiese and Gavin Johnson) – prior to ’95 I had not spent much time analysing the game as it was being played elsewhere. Lets do a bit of investigation into where the game has come from and where it seems to be going in 2015. In other words: Let’s do some stats! AVERAGE NUMBER OF POINTS PER GAME 2011 - 51 2007 - 52 2003 - 59 1999 - 60 1995 - 54 1991 - 42 1987 - 58 From these figures it can be said that the game has not really changed much. The one thing that is evident is that the number of high scoring run-aways such as the All Blacks 145 to 17 demolition of Japan in 1995, or Scotland taking down the Ivory Coast 89 – 0 completely skew the figures. In 1999 we saw both Italy and Tonga concede in excess of 100 points (101 each to be precise) against the All Blacks and England respectively, while Canada thumped Namibia 72 – 11. In 2003 there were also a number of serious mismatches, with Australia taking down Namibia by 142 to 0, and winning 90 to 8 against Romania. England demolished poor Georgia 84 – 6. On to 2007 and South Africa thumped the USA 64 – 15 and poor old Portugal felt the wrath of the All Blacks to the tune of 108 to 13 and then it was Romania that felt the AB fist at 85 to 8. If we were to take out all of these mismatches and focus on the results of a strength versus strength competition, the points scored are still in line with the overall averages. Only finals seem to be low scoring affairs. SCORE PROFILE In 1987 the tournament was hosted in New Zealand and Australia and provided for 64 games, with 224 tries at 3,5 per game. 148 tries were converted, while 128 penalties were converted, and 15 drop goals were kicked. A total of 1621 points were scored during the tournament. In 1991 in the wet sogginess of the United Kingdom and Ireland there were still 64 games, with only 148 tries at 2,3 per game, 88 conversions, 127 penalties converted and 16 drop goals, for a total of 1197 points scored. Along came 1995 with the dry fields of South Africa, still 64 games, and 187 tries at 2,92 per game, 132 of which were converted, 160 penalties were scored, and 17 drop goals. A total of 1730 points scored in the tournament. Fully professional 1999 gave us an increase to 82 games, with 242 tries at 2,95 per game. 191 tries were converted, 254 penalties were slotted home, and 21 drop goals sailed through the uprights. 2417 points were scored. By 2003 the number of games had grown to 96, with 332 tries and 244 conversions, 206 penalties, and 23 drop goals. The tries per game average had grown to 3,45, and a total of 2835 points were scored. 2007 saw 96 games, 296 tries at 3,08 per game, 211 of them converted. 178 penalties and 14 drop goals were slotted home. A total of 2478 points scored. In 2011 the 96 games gave us 262 tries at 2,72 per game, 181 conversions, 254 penalties and 20 drop goals, and a total of 2245 points scored. A rapid glance at these figures show that nothing much has changed during the years and between tournaments. Try scoring rates are pretty much of a muchness, hovering at around 3 per game, except for the 1991 RWC when the average was down at just over two per game. The IRB/World Rugby make much of the fact that the penalty count has gone down, but the conversion figures do not support that statement. Perhaps the number of penalties whistled in a match have gone down and kickers have improved? We will look at those stats a little later! The average points scored per game are also interesting – 1987 – 25,32 1991 – 18,70 1995 – 27,03 1999 – 29,47 2003 – 29,53 2007 – 25,81 2011 – 23,38 Nothing much has changed there either! From the first lot of stats the game seems to be pretty much the same as it was 28 years ago. The points scored per game are about the same, and the number of tries per game have hovered around the 3 mark all the way. So where are the most significant changes to be found? To prevent the eye-wateringly boring repetition of statistic after statistic I will focus on a couple of key areas, leaving the rest to those boring old farts like myself who like to fully immerse ourselves in totally inconsequential trivia. Using 1995 as our benchmark, as this was the final amateur era RWC, lets have a look at how the game has changed. BALL IN PLAY In 1995 the ball was “live” or “in play” for 33% of the time. That is 26 minutes of actual play during an 80-minute game. By 2003 this figure had improved to 42% of ball in play time – or 33,6 minutes. 2007 and 2011 showed identical percentages of 44% or 35,6 minutes – we are almost getting a whole half of constant rugby! Certainly the professional era has brought about a change for the better in this respect. The setting of lineouts is quicker, the tap penalty or free kick has become lightning fast, and the quick throw in from touch is a significant factor towards increasing the amount of “live” ball time. PASSES In 1995 players strung together an average of 179 passes per game. By 2003 this figure had increased to 241 per game, only to drop again in 2007 to 224, but a significant increase of 263 passes per game were recorded in 2011. If we look at the change between 1995 and 2011 there has been an increase of 47% in the number of passes made. This indicated that the game has opened up and that there is more running and less trundling going on now. Interesting to note that the stats for which players pass the ball have not changed significantly over the years since 1995 – the backs make 36% of the passes, the forwards 18% and the scrumhalf makes the rest or 46% of all the passes delivered. RUCKS & MAULS This aspect of our game shows a huge change. In 1995 there were an average of 69 rucks or mauls in a game. By 2003 the figure had jumped to 136, and 144 by 2007 – in 2011 there were 162 rucks and mauls in a game, or 135% more than in 1995. By 2011 teams taking the ball into the ruck or maul situation were retaining possession 94% of the time, with possession being conceded only 6% of the time. KICKS IN PLAY In 1995 the likes of Joel Stransky, Andrew Mehrtens and other kicked the ball on average 75 times in a game. That is around once per minute in an 80 minute game, but the figure looks far worse when we consider that the ball was only in play for 26 minutes! They were kicking the ball on average very 20 seconds! By 2003 this number of kicks had reduced by a third to 52 times in a game, in 2007 similar at 56 times in a game, and by 2011 the figure was down to 41 kicks per game. That is a reduction of 45% in kicking. This is a significant change as we now have ten minutes more time with the ball in play, and only 41 kicks – this means that players re kicking the ball once every 60 seconds versus once every 20 seconds in 1995. SCRUMS In 2014 we have seen a significant reduction in the average number of scrums per game in the test arena. So far this has been at 8 per game. Back in 1995 there were 27 scrums, in 2003 scrums tallied 21, and in 2007 this was down to 19. The trend held on in 2011 and we saw even less at 17 scrums per game. It is evident that the significance of the scrum is slowly diminishing and becoming less important in the overall game. Why? Are the handling errors resulting in scrums also reducing? Are the refs applying the advantage law better or more leniently? Are the players skill levels so much better that they make less mistakes? The other significant factor has been the number of reset scrums – in the early days of rugby nobody kept statistics on the number of resets per scrum, it just was not a significant part of the game. In the 1995 RWC South Africa ended up with the trophy having not been part of a single reset scrum throughout the pool or knockout phases of the game. By 2003 the scrum collapse rate was as high as 1 in seven scrums, and the figure got worse as the referees and lawmakers fiddled with all manner of scrum setting sequences and rules – “Crouch, Touch, Pause, Set” and “Crouch, Bind, Set” – and an increase in scum related penalties from 1 for every 6.7 scrums in 2003 to 1 in 4 by 2011. The scrum collapse rate became such an embarrassment that the IRB stopped keeping statistics in 2007 and also avoided reporting on this aspect in 2011. Stats are available from other sources such as ESPN, and show that the interference by the authorities has caused this aspect of the game to deteriorate constantly. LINEOUTS In 1995 there were 37 lineouts in a game. By 2003 this had reduced to 33, and by 2007 there were only 31 per game. In 2011 the lineout count had reduced to 24. That is an overall reduction of 35% less lineouts in 2011 compared to 1995. Why? Firstly the kicking stats tell us that there are a lot less kicks in the modern game, hence less lineouts. Secondly the modern law allows the quick throw-in from anywhere behind the place where the ball went out, as long as the lineout has not formed up. These two aspects have reduced the number of lineouts significantly. The success rate, or retention rate for lineouts has skyrocketed since the introduction of lifting in the lineout – if we were to compare modern lineouts with those of the past we would not be comparing apples with apples. Back in the bad old days there was no regulation of the spacing between players and between teams, and no lifting was allowed. Lineout ball retention was often a lottery, usually around a 60% retention rate. Today the entire set piece is different and teams pride themselves on achieving a retention rate of between 95% and 100%. PENALTIES The penalty count in 1995 averaged 25 per game. By 2003 the penalty count was 24, reducing to 19 per game in 2007 and edging up to 21 per game in 2011. There is nothing significant in these figures – it would be interesting to dig deeper and see where the penalties were awarded. I do have this information but will set is aside for another day. IMPACT OF THE PENALTY GOAL ON MATCH RESULTS The stats show that as a tournament progresses, penalty goals increase in numbers awarded and converted, while the number of tries decreases. This is especially true in the knock-out phases and finals where teams tend to take less chances with the ball in hand and revert to safety first rugby. 85% of all games are won by the team scoring the most tries and only 15% are won by the team that scored the fewer tries but kicked more penalties. KICKING SUCCESS RATE I mentioned earlier that we would have a look at the number of penalties awarded and the kicking success rate. With the onset of the professional era the success rates of kicks at goal has improved from a test match average of 52% to 53% - measured since 1946. These figures are now exceeded comfortably in all major rugby competitions with RWC99 showing a conversion success rate of almost 80%. This level of success was not quite maintained however in RWC2003 where 73% was achieved, in 2007 the success rate was 71% and in 2011 it was down at 69%. Analysis of the kick success rates shows that the top tier teams achieve a much higher conversion success rate than the teams in the lower tiers. The top teams, with their kicking coaches and video analysis specialists, biokinetisists and full time professional players spend more time perfecting the art of place kicking and show success rates of 85% on average. Another interesting statistic is that an average of 21 penalties or free kicks are still awarded in test matches, yet less kicks are being aimed at the posts than ever before – many teams preferring to kick for the corner and set up a lineout and rolling maul situation. Up to and including 1995 the number of penalties per match averaged at 26. There were also 60% more attempts at goal from a penalty. This statistic is also relevant when considering that penalty goals were a major scoring option in those bad old days – 50% of all points scored in a test match came from penalties. By the 2000’s this figure had dropped to 34% GAME TIME Test matches are now longer - the average match takes 5 minutes longer than it did in 1995. The most significant contributors to the extended time on the field are: Blood Bin replacements. Player Substitutions TMO referrals Yellow Cards Injury stoppages. In addition to the increase in playing time, we also have an 11 minute half time rather than the old 3 minute break for an orange and some plaster. TMO – THE TELEVISION MATCH OFFICIAL The introduction of the TMO referral system has had a major impact on the game. First introduced in 2001, the TMO initially could only assist in deciding whether a try had been scored or not – since then their powers, if not their competency, have increased markedly. 2003 was the first RWC sullied by the TMO system and there were 36 references to the TMO. As a result of the 36 references, 16 tries were awarded. The shortest reference to the TMO took 17 seconds – the longest, 2min 31seconds. By 2007 there were 57 TMO referrals, and 33 tries were awarded as a result of such referrals. In 2011 there were 56 referrals and 28 tries were awarded. More recently we have seen a substantial increase in the use of TMO referrals to adjudicate on issues such as possible foul play or dangerous tackles, or other incidents during play, be it forward passes or knocked balls. SUMMARY I leave this expedition into the jungle of rugby statistics with a short summary: - The ball is in play a lot more than it used to be. - Scrums are becoming less and less important in the game. - Lineouts are still lineouts, although success rates have increased since the advent of lifting. - Far less kicking in open play today than in the past. - Far fewer kicks aimed at posts, but a much higher success rate. - Tries win 85% of games. - Rucks & Mauls have become the single most important phase of play on the field. There are 135% more of them today, and retention rates of 95% are common. - The scrumhalf still passes the ball more than anyone else, but the overall number of passes per game has increased by 47% since 1995. - The TMO is a blight on the game. And there are the cold hard facts, for what they are worth. If I feel up to it I will spend time between now and RWC 2015 analysing different aspects of the game in depth, and then bore y’all with the results.
Posted on: Wed, 26 Nov 2014 08:38:53 +0000
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