SWIOCOF Statement: Given the global tropical SSTs patterns and related trends above, knowledge and understanding of regional climate variability and predictability, analysis and interpretation of seasonal monitoring and forecasting systems and their products, the following precipitation and cyclone days, frequency and tracks are expected duri ng the forecast period ( see figures below): - the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin is very likely to record near average number of tropical cyclone with south to southeastward tracks more likely during the November 2013 to April 2014 season. Near average to slightly below average number of tropical cyclone days is more likely during the first half of the season, reverse bei ng the case for its second half. - for the November 2013 to January 2014 period, eastern half of South Africa, central and southern Moz ambique are very likely to receive above to near average precipitation. Northern and western Madagascar is very likely to receive near to above average precipitation. Northern Moz ambique, southern Tanz ania, Comoros, Seychelles, La Reunion, Mauritius and much of central and southern Madagascar are very likely to receive below to near average precipitation. - for the December 2013 to February 2014 period, northeastern South Africa and southern Mozambique are very likely to receive above to near average precipitation. Most of southern Madagascar is very likely to record near to above average precipitation. However, northern Mozambique, southern Tanz ania, Comoros, Seychelles, La Reunion, Mauritius, northern Madagascar are very likely to record below to near average precipitation.
Posted on: Fri, 01 Nov 2013 08:42:54 +0000
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