Saffron party surge all the way The Congress-led UPA is going to face the worst-ever route in the coming Lok Sabha elections across the country. The “biggest-ever” opinion conducted by Hansa Research Group for national television channel NDTV has predicted a massive upsurge for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA, much higher than what was predicted all the other surveys so far.The rigorous polling exercise conducted by the NDTV-Hansa Grop cover over 350 (out of the 543) Lok Sabha constituencies with a total sample size of over 2 lakh. Out of these 350 seats, the NDTV released results for 319 seats. Of them, the NDA is set to win more than 166 seats including 146 by the BJP alone. The UPA will end up with just around 56 seats, including 40 by the Congress. The survey did not include the AIADMK of Tamil Nadu, BJD of Odisha and Trinamul Congress of the West Bengal in either of the coalitions, which together might win 85 seats and also in the alternative front (AF), comprising the Left parties, which is set to win around 16 LS seats. The biggest-ever opinion poll conducted by NDTV-Hansa Group predicts massive wave for Modi-led NDA; Congress to face the worst-ever rout Interestingly, the NDTV opinion poll did not include the outcome of elections in Andhra Pradesh which has now been divided into two States: Telangana and residuary AP. But here, too, the Congress is unlikely to fare better: while it is most likely to get wiped out in Seemandhra region, it might win half-a-dozen seats by forcing alliance with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi.The Congress party, according to the survey, is going to put up a disastrous show even in the States ruled by it. For example, in Karnataka where it is ruling, the Congress would get just six Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP would get 20 seats, leaving the remaining two seats to the JD (S). In Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP combine would be down by 13 seats compared to 2009 elections and would secure only 12 seats this time, whereas the BJP-Shiv Sena combine would sweep the polls by securing 33 seats. In Haryana, too, the ruling Congress would get only three MP seats while the BJP-HJC combine would get seven MP seats.In Delhi, the Congress is all set to get wiped out completely. While Aam Admi Party is likely to win four MP seats, the BJP would get two seats.Similarly in West Bengal, the Congress will get just one seat (down by five), whereas the TMC is all set to win 32 MP seats, reducing the Left parties to a tally of just six seats. In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is set to sweep the polls by winning 27 out of 39 seats, while its arch rival DMK would end up with just 10 seats. The Congress party is nowhere in the picture.In Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, the BJP has a massive surge, completely marginalizing the Congress and its allies.The sample selection methodology was based on electoral rolls to ensure a random sample with other technology innovations and new methods of interviewing voters (for example, wherever feasible, women field-workers interviewing female voters). Computer Aided Personal Interviews (CAPI) were conducted for all polls to ensure better data quality.NDTV has used innovative methods to ensure better data quality which will include regular updates and tracking through mobile telephonic-surveys, votes to seats conversion based on proprietary IPR using homogenous swing zones, multi-party swings and margins of victory and changes in the extent of vote-splitting in each homogeneous swing zone.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 01:27:43 +0000
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