Sam Nda Isaiah wrote,as at April 7,2013. President Jonathan’s Funny Promises Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that, by 2015, only 27.2 per cent of Nigerians would be poor. Well, that would not have been a problem except that as we all know, at the moment in 2013, more than 110 million Nigerians out of a total population of about 170 million live below $1 a day. This means that approximately 64 per cent of the Nigerian population is desperately poor today. But the NBS is telling us that, in two years, this figure of 64 per cent will suddenly become 27.2 per cent. I think some of these government people should start giving Nigerians some credit for basic intelligence. Well, 2015 also happens to be an election year and President Goodluck Jonathan intends to contest the presidential election under his PDP by hook or by crook, even though the records are desperately stacked against him. Even so, there are lies that are just beyond the pale. This is one of them. Besides, from what we can see, the poverty incidence in Nigeria will only get worse. Nigeria is a resource-rich country with an economy that grows at an average of more than 7 per cent annually. With such credentials, any other country would have almost banished poverty by now or at the very least reduced it to the barest. But, in Nigeria, poverty has been increasing just as the economy has been expanding. That is the kind of paradox that economists always have a tough time explaining. India’s economy, for instance, has also consistently expanded in the last 15 years at an average of about 7 per cent per annum. And, within this corresponding period, more than 400 million people have been lifted out of poverty. That is more logical than what is happening in Nigeria. Ditto for China, which has recorded an annual average GDP growth of 9 per cent in the last 10 years, and, as a result, has experienced by far the fastest consumption rate of any major economy in the world. Poverty rate has consistently reduced as a result, to the extent that China is now being classified as an affluent society. Our own is different because of the new definition our leaders have given corruption. Unfortunately, this madness called corruption has consistently gone worse because our leaders simply do not give a damn. By 2015, if nothing is done about the current level of corruption, it is more likely that Nigeria would have 80 per cent of its population classified as poor instead of the 27.2 per cent lie from the NBS. But that is just by the way. I have also noticed that President Jonathan’s people have been lying that by the time they have generated 4,000mw of electricity, which is what they are working on at the moment, Nigeria would have 24-hour uninterrupted power supply. Even President Jonathan himself said exactly so on Easter Day when power suddenly went off in the church in Lagos where he went for Easter service. A little embarrassed by that, the president subsequently announced to the congregation that by 2014 — a few months from now — Nigeria would start experiencing uninterrupted power supply. I do not believe that the president was lying. No, my president doesn’t lie. It is more like the president doesn’t know that 4,000mw will more likely be able to guarantee Lagos State alone 24-hour uninterrupted power if all the 4,000mw were given to Lagos alone, but certainly not the whole of Nigeria. Lagos State must have a population close to 25 million. Ghana that has a population of 25 million generates a total of nearly 4,000mw of electricity today. If Ghana currently generates nearly 4,000mw for a population of 25 million, how on earth would anyone say 4,000mw will provide the whole of Nigeria’s 170 million people, a population more than six times that of Ghana, uninterrupted power supply? South Africa has a population of about 50 million people. That makes it less than a third the size of Nigeria in terms of population. Eskom of South Africa, which is the equivalent of Nigeria’s PHCN or NEPA, depending on what you want to call them, generates more than 40,000mw of electricity. Eskom supplies about 34,000mw to South Africa and exports the rest to Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Swaziland and others to generate revenues. Municipalities and the private sector in South Africa together produce a further 3,000mw. That means that, with a population of 50 million, South Africa utilises 37,000 megawatts. Yet, the country has started rationing electricity because that quantity is already proving grossly insufficient. Eskom has already started expanding its capacity and intends to produce 80,000mw within the next two decades. Yet, our president tells us that 4,000mw will give us uninterrupted power supply. Now let’s look at the quantity of electricity countries in our size range produce: Brazil, with a population of 190 million people, produces nearly 100,000mw of electricity. Egypt, which is half our size (82 million people), produces 26,000mw, which, of course, is considered grossly inadequate. Indonesia, with a population of 240 million people and which produces 30,000mw, currently has more than 80 million of its people without access to adequate electricity. They are, at the moment, desperately trying to expand their generating capacity. For obvious reasons, electricity generation always has a linear relationship with economic growth. The United States with a population of 311 million people and with a total electricity-generating capacity of nearly 1.3 million megawatts was the largest in the world until a few months ago. It has now been overtaken by China which produces something close to 1.4 million megawatts. Should that surprise anyone? No, it shouldn’t. China’s economy has been growing at an annual average of more than 9 per cent while the United States has grown at an average of 3 per cent per annum in the last 10 years. China currently has a population of 1.34 billion people. And trust the Chinese: they are currently working to even double this humongous electricity-generating capacity. It is important that Nigerians know that Nigeria needs to produce an aggregate total capacity of something close to 40,000mw of electricity before they can even start talking. And to get 24-hour uninterrupted power supply, we must produce at least 80,000mw for our size of 170 million people. As we can see, Brazil with a population of 190 million, produces 100,000mw. Nobody should ever believe that 4,000mw will make any difference. Pakistan, with a population of 176 million, which is the closest to ours and which is often classified as a failed state, generates 20,000mw of electricity, which is five times what Jonathan intends to produce. A serious country like Singapore with a population of 5.5 million has a peak demand of about 6,500mw. In spite of that, it currently generates more than 10,000mw. That’s how nations are run. Nigeria has a long way to go, but with our president declaring that 4,000mw will give us uninterrupted power supply, we have not even started.
Posted on: Wed, 17 Dec 2014 10:12:20 +0000
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