"Saying that every vote is a vote in favor of the system suppresses the anti-establishment vote precisely because it is aimed at signalling the lack of legitimacy of the system." "Yet, in reality, for most people the elections are not about legitimizing or delegitimizing the system. For most, the elections provide one of very few opportunities to push for change in a peaceful manner without risking punishment, violence or at worst instability or even civil war (most Iranians want change, but not at the expense of ending up in a Syria scenario.) If they vote, they will simply do so because it provides the lowest risk path towards change." "The West cannot impact the elections. But if Mr. Rouhani wins and choses to pursue a more conciliatory foreign policy, the response of the West can determine his success and whether more moderate elements can push the radicals to the margins." "Mr. Rouhani and his entourage hold a different world view than those close to Mr. Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader. While still suspicious and distrustful of the West, and while still committed to Iran’s bottom line on the nuclear issue, the elite that associates with Mr. Rouhani does not see the world in Manichean black and white. The outside world may be seen as hostile, but common interests can still be found. Collaboration is still possible. Rather than emphasizing ideology and resistance, they pride themselves on being pragmatic and results-oriented (of course, within the context of the political spectrum of the Islamic republic). It is not a surprise that most of the sensitive arrangements Iran have entered into came about during periods that this current dominated Iran’s decision making."
Posted on: Fri, 14 Jun 2013 03:03:59 +0000
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