See insightful analysis by Richard D. Kauzlarich, former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan: “The Heydar Aliyev Era Ends in Azerbaijan Not with a Bang but a Whisper,” Brookings Opinion, 13 January 2015. brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/01/13-aliyev-era-ends-bang-whisper-azerbaijan-kauzlarich Excerpts: “On December 3, 2014 the Heydar Aliyev era in Azerbaijan ended. With it went the previously close political relationship between the United States and Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev, who was President of Azerbaijan from 1993 until his death in 2003, presided over a foreign policy that emphasized energy relations with the West, and political and security engagement with the United States and a range of transatlantic institutions……. His son and successor, Azerbaijan’s current president Ilham Aliyev, has increasingly moved away from his father’s path and now seems to have approved a final rupture with the past. The end came in a little noticed Russian-language polemic by the long-serving head of Azerbaijan’s Presidential Apparatus, Ramiz Mehdiyev. Ilham Aliyev’s silence on what seems to be a major change in Azerbaijani foreign policy is notable, as is the lack of official reaction in Washington, D.C. U.S.-Azerbaijan relations are clearly now in serious crisis, and indeed have been for some time. In his article, Mehdiyev asserts that from the beginning of Heydar Aliyev’s presidency, the U.S. was plotting with domestic opposition elements to create a “fifth column” to promote “color revolutions” while pursuing a policy of “double standards” to interfere in the internal affairs of states around the world and Azerbaijan in particular. Using non-governmental organizations, the U.S. sought to create an international framework of “active agents” to promote “American democracy.” Mehdiyev points to events in the former Yugoslavia and the Arab Spring as evidence for this and then goes on to hold the U.S. responsible for the “current crisis in international affairs.” Now, Mehdiyev, declares, Azerbaijan must move away from the dominant world power, and choose a new path of national consolidation built around “strong presidential power and stability in society.” Azerbaijan must have a “balanced” and “independent” foreign policy that prioritizes enhancing Azerbaijan’s “image.” Mehdiyev’s article has been accompanied by continuing attacks on the United States in the mainstream Azeri press, and also by raids on the Baku bureau of the U.S.-funded media service, RFE/RL, and arrests of leading journalists with ties to the organization. Independent Azeri analysts, internal opposition figures and groups that have secured international funding, especially from the United States have also been targeted. Over 90 Azeris who fall under these categories—many young, and several women—were arrested during 2014. For some, their purported crime was questioning the vote count in the election that maintained Ilham Aliyev in power. For others, it was expressing critical views of the regime. A number of analysts and opposition activists were also arrested as “traitors” who support Armenia (in reference to Azerbaijan’s long-standing conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh) and/or work for “foreign” (read U.S.) spies. Foreign nongovernmental organizations (NGO) funding activities in Azerbaijan have had their accounts frozen, forcing them to curtail and then close their programs in Azerbaijan. U.S. officials, including congressional staffers, American ambassadors (bilateral and Minsk Group co-chair) and even the U.S. president himself have also been attacked.” “……The Aliyev regime has become steadily disillusioned with the United States’ persistence in pressing Azerbaijan on its democratic development and criticizing its failures on human rights. Azerbaijan has long demanded that the United States recognize it as a strategic partner given its importance as a major energy producer and its role as a frontline state between both Russia and Iran. On this basis, Baku felt entitled to certain exemptions regarding how it conducted its domestic affairs and petitioned Washington to stop its criticism of the regime’s domestic politics.” “……the U.S.- Azerbaijan relationship must now be based on the new reality that Ramiz Mehdiyev imposed on December 3, 2014. It is time for a new beginning.” “Given developments in the global energy market, access to Azerbaijan’s energy is no longer the key political driver in our relations that it was 20 years ago. As it should be, energy is now a commercial and not a political issue. “….. Similarly, as the combat phase of U.S.-NATO involvement in Afghanistan recedes, the need for a more robust security relationship with Azerbaijan is reduced as well. Above all, we must now avoid the trap of thinking that somehow Azerbaijan is an element in the current conflict with Russia over Ukraine. It would be a mistake—even absent the Mehdiyev polemic—to put Azerbaijan in a position where it inevitably would be a liability rather than an asset in this confrontation, given Baku’s own vulnerabilities to Moscow’s pressure.” Only One Thing Matters Post-December 3 Mehdiyev has reduced U.S.-Azerbaijani relations to its most essential element: the peaceful resolution of the conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Nothing else is quite so consequential in U.S.-Azerbaijani relations. It is time to set a clear target date for the two sides to take advantage of the Minsk Group mediation efforts and resolve this conflict peacefully. To do this we need to: 1. Insist that both sides appoint fully-empowered negotiators (as existed during the Heydar Aliyev period) to conduct face-to-face discussions based on the framework the Minsk Group has provided but without Minsk Group direct mediation. 2. Reopen the political space for Track II contacts between Armenians and Azeris. Securing the release of Azerbaijani political prisoners accused of treasonous contact with Armenians is a necessary element for this. 3. Insist that the framework discussions be completed by the fall of 2015. We have passed the period where both parties can cite the Minsk Group for failing to settle the dispute while they refuse to engage in serious diplomacy. In 2014, the risk of war increased. In 2015, we do not have time to continue business as usual. Impossible? Not if Azerbaijan truly desires the international and U.S. respect it seeks. Respect results from actions. Freeing political prisoners and seriously negotiating with Armenia about ending the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh are the only paths to earning that respect.”
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 09:06:45 +0000
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