Seeing everyone sharing the WGN News picture with us getting 18 of snow on Tuesday/Wednesday, I thought Id share this from the NIU Weather guy, Gilbert, from his forecast discussion today... FORECAST DISCUSSION: Lots of blowing and drifting of snow in open and rural areas across west to east roadways will continue until a cold front comes through around 8 or 9 PM this evening, and and ahead of that front, up to an inch of snow is likely. Of greater concern, however, is the system coming in Friday night into Saturday. I knew the models were tracking the low pressure system too far south, but it now appears we could be hit directly by this system. While it wont be a whopper...and winds should thankfully be light as the snow is falling and after it is done...we could see 4-7 of snow with locally heavier amounts. The National Weather Service is looking into issuing a winter storm watch for this system...if they do that, they could issue it this afternoon with their regular late afternoon forecast. Well see. In any case, travel on Saturday will be slow. After that, cold and dry on Sunday and Monday...I lowered highs based on a higher snow cover. The new GFS model has a low between -10 and -15 for our area Monday morning, but that may be overdone. For now, I lowered the low to -5. After that, another major winter storm could impact our area Tuesday and/or Wednesday of next week, and perhaps something either Friday or Saturday of next week. We are going to substantially add to our winter snowfall total over the next 10 days...particularly along and north of I-88. Sorry this is late...weve been real busy here. OK, first...I think what Ill do, in light of limited time, and high uncertainty in the forecast beyond Monday is simply to focus on the first major system, dealing with them one at a time. Todays snow is now over with, having an inch or less down. That was ahead of a cold front that will come through about 9 PM this evening. That will turn our gusty southwest winds to the northwest, and actually slow them down quickly to 10 MPH. And, it will set the boundary, or track, for the system coming through Friday and Saturday. That one will get Gulf moisture into it as it lifts northeastward from Texas and Oklahoma into Illinois on Saturday. The most likely track across central to south central Illinois puts the heaviest snow from Chicago to Mendota...and that area may see 6-10. North and south of there, it tapers off until you get to 2-5 for Rockford...but with the system shoving farther north and perhaps lasting longer, Ive opted to keep even our northern campuses in the 4-8 band for now. It is possible, based on the new European model and the latest GFS/NAM models that 4-8 MIGHT be too low, or that we could be on the high range of amounts. However, there is still enough uncertainty in the forecast that I dont want to go with the worst case scenario of 10 until tomorrow when I can see the whites of the eyes of this system. In any case, amounts aside...travel on Saturday will be significantly hampered by the snow. The good news is that winds on Friday night and Saturday should be around 10 MPH, and so blowing and drifting will not be a real issue with this system. It all ends Saturday evening as it pushes to the east. After that, we dry out for Sunday and Monday, and the rumors flying about a big system on Tuesday or Wednesday...well just have to get closer to see what is fact or fiction. For now, I left it as a chance of snow. Lets get through this one first...it will help determine where the future systems will go. Gilbert
Posted on: Fri, 31 Jan 2014 02:30:18 +0000
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