Sent: Friday, October 04, 2013 8:10 AM Subject: ***FYI Tropics Update: Friday morning summary and slides for TS Karen Summary: • At 8AM, Tropical Storm Karen was located about 445 Miles South-southwest of the Mouth of Mississippi River which is approximately 538 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida. • Karen is forecast to slow down in foreword speed later today with a turn toward the north, before making a sharp turn to the northeast on Saturday before landfall late Saturday/early Sunday. • Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph with higher gusts. Environmental conditions will promote some strengthening over the next day or two and there is a 23% chance that this system could become a hurricane 1am on Sunday. • The tack of this system will depend on the timing of a frontal boundary which is expected to descend into our area. Models have become more uncertain, and solutions suggest a possible landfall anywhere between Gulf County in Florida and New Orleans, but the majority of solutions place a landfall near Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwest Florida. • The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that this system will continue to drift north-northwestward and maintain relatively the same strength. Slight strengthening to a 70 mph TS is forecast by the time of landfall in • A hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance flights are continually investigating this system Florida Outlook: • The timing of this system is highly uncertain but impacts could be felt as early Saturday Afternoon or Sunday morning. • A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Destin, Florida westward through Louisiana. This includes the counties of: Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia. • Meanwhile, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida through Destin, Florida. This includes the counties of: Walton, Bay, and Gulf. • This means that gusty winds could begin to impact portions of Northwest Florida in the next 48 hours. There is currently a 30% chance for tropical storm force winds reaching the Panhandle. • Widespread heavy rainfall of between 3 and 5 inches is possible across the Panhandle with locally heavier amounts of up to 10 inches. • As a result, river, flash, and coastal flooding will be a concern. • Storm surge is forecast to reach 1 to 3 feet along the western panhandle and 2 to 4 feet along the Big Bend • The risk for tornadoes is still unknown due to uncertainty in the forecast. As the scenario progresses, this risk may increase on the east side of the storm. • It is important to remember that there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and that the impacts remain still remain extremely uncertain at this time. • Although this storm is expected to stay off the West Coast of the Peninsula, areas of West Central and Southwest Florida may see some fringe impacts of showers and storms. • A high risk of rip currents will be possible across the Panhandle Coasts beginning today and lingering this weekend. Briefing slides are attached. Another packet will be sent out this afternoon. For more information, please visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at nhc.noaa.gov. .
Posted on: Fri, 04 Oct 2013 17:37:07 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015