September 9, 2014: Hello, hello, hello :) - I am semi-back at the weather wheel. We have some active weather to talk about over the coming 24-48 hours, so lets get right to it. The focus of this discussion will be concerning the thunderstorm chances on Wednesday/Wednesday night/Thursday morning and the cooler temperatures. 1. Warm with gusty winds into Wednesday night 2. Strong cold front arrives late Wednesday night/Thursday morning with gusty thunderstorms. Low risk for a severe thunderstorm in far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. 3. MUCH cooler air (coolest air of the season on tap for the end of the week) 4. Additional cool shots possible next week. Autumn? For the rest of today and tonight I dont foresee any significant weather issues for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. We will be in the warm sector of a developing storm system over the Central United States. That means warm and moist air is returning (briefly) to our region. You will notice an increase in temperatures today and on Wednesday. Winds will also become gusty out of the south. This will be in response to an area of low pressure deepening over Iowa. This low will eventually move into the Great Lakes. A rather impressive area of low pressure for early September. A strong cold front will sweep through our area on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. If you have been following the updates over the past week you will remember that has been our focus time for thunderstorms. One exception... I cant rule out some shower and thunderstorm activity today into Wednesday across the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. More towards the Mt Vernon area (perhaps a county south of there). Far southern Illinois and western Kentucky should remain dry until the cold front arrives. At least that is how it appears right now. Forecast far southern Illinois and western Kentucky... A line of showers and thunderstorms will form on Wednesday afternoon across portions of Illinois and Missouri. This line will then sweep south and east. At its peak there could be a few reports of damaging wind over portions of our region. I think the greatest risk area (and even there it is a low end risk) would be somewhere over the northern parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Lets say from Perryville, MO northeast towards Carmi, Illinois. See graphics below. The line of storms should be weakening as it moves into our local region (the further south and east you go in our region the weaker the storms should be). The better dynamics and wind fields will be further to our north and northeast (over northern Illinois into central/northern Indiana). They stand a better chance of experiencing verified severe weather in those areas. There remain some questions on the exact timing of the line of thunderstorms. The front may not make it into western Kentucky until very late Wednesday night. Again, the line of storms should be weakening as it moves southeast. See the model graphic I will post below - it shows four time frames for future-cast radar (or what radar might look like). Time stamps are in the upper right portion of each graphic. Brief heavy downpours and lightning will be a concern with the thunderstorms (as it usually the case this time of the year). Low end chance for severe weather. Remember a severe thunderstorm is defined as one that produces 58 mph winds or greater, 1 hail or larger, and/or a tornado. There might be a severe weather watch of some sort Wednesday afternoon and night for portions of our region. Monitor updates as we move forward. Again, the overall threat for severe weather in far southern Illinois and western Kentucky appears minimal/low. Once the front moves through the region, we will be left with cooler temperatures right on through the weekend. It would not surprise me to see some overnight lows in the 40s for some of our counties over the upcoming weekend. Chilly air for this time of the year. Well below normal. Some sprinkles cant be ruled out on Friday or Friday night. Does not look to be a big deal. Footfall Friday might be a bit on the cool side. Football weather? :) The weekend should be dry. Highs will struggle to reach the 70s on Saturday and will likely be in the 70s on Sunday. It will feel more like fall than summer. I do not see any chance of frost with this particular cool spell. Temperatures should remain well above the frost point in our local counties. I am going to post several graphics below 1. Wednesday mornings school bus stop weather 2. Wednesday afternoons school bus stop weather 3. Timing of thunderstorms on Wednesday night (approximate - the front could be a bit faster than this model is showing) 4. Severe weather outlook graphic. Yellow is where thunderstorms are forecast to occur, but remain mostly below severe levels. The orange area is where a few storms could become severe. I have marked on the map my thoughts, as well. 5. Severe weather threat matrix 6. Severe weather threat is marginal for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night/Thursday morning. 7. The 6-10 day temperature outlook for next Sunday through Thursday. The blue color means that odds favor below normal temperatures. 8. Snowfall forecast - not for here, of course ;) - but to show you that the seasons are definitely changing.
Posted on: Tue, 09 Sep 2014 17:39:36 +0000
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