September Wx Update. (Ill touch on part 2 of my Winter forecasts briefly). Share, like, comment I failed to make my scheduled post on what we can expect for September. Im late to the party but Ill still touch on it. As most have already aware, much of the country will be affected by an early Autumn type storm system (we are already in meteorological Fall/Autumn). Remember me talking in my Winter Post a few weeks ago about watching our Fall weather pattern and the possible El Nino development that could adversely affect our Jetstream pattern. Weve all felt the late summer warmth for the past week especially, well thats going to be a memory by next weekend. But does this support the winter forecasting information Im looking for? Kinda, Let me preach on it. Im still expecting well have a few warmer than average spells especially late Fall/early Winter and then possibly have several bitter cold spells (extreme cold in parts of the US). But as Ive said many times, so far the trend is your friend if your a snow lover. Troughs digging Southeast have been a common occurrence since last January and even through the Summer when record lows were broke across much of the Eastern US (4 deep troughs in July, very unusual). If this continues along with a weak to moderate El Nino, it could certainly be interesting to watch Winter 2014-15. I think September will average out in regards to temperature and precip. November will be my month to watch, By this time El Nino should have begun to develop. Summary: A warm start to September will turn a little below normal mid Sept. and likely be close to average late Sept (temps). Not making my official scheduled part 2 winter forecast just yet, but Im leaning one direction. Stay tuned to ETSWS!! Below: Picture 1, 6-10 temp probabilities (you can clearly see the ridge vs. the trough). Picture 2,3, frontal maps depiction valid for Thursday and Friday. This system will have a very strong wind gradient associated with it, especially for the Northern tear.
Posted on: Sun, 07 Sep 2014 23:01:50 +0000
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