Several weather systems will bring precipitation chances to north and central Texas through the weekend. The first system will arrive late tonight and Friday and will affect mainly southern sections. The second system will arrive late Saturday and will bring good precipitation chances, mainly a cold rain, to many areas. The threat for winter weather will end by mid morning on Sunday as temperatures rise above freezing and all precipitation after that falls as a cold rain. BOTTOM LINE: Emergency Managers, elected officials, public works departments, and other public safety officials should monitor for the potential of winter precipitation from late tonight into Sunday morning. Check on the forecast often, as the forecast temperature trends will dictate whether or not significant impacts will occur in any given area. Widespread significant winter weather impacts are NOT forecast across north or central Texas at this time, but a few areas can expect to receive at least minor impacts with slick bridges and overpasses. PRIMARY IMPACTS: The primary impacts expected would be the development of slick spots on bridges and overpasses in areas that receive a period of freezing rain, sleet or snow. Minor ice accumulation can be expected on trees and shrubs in areas that receive a period of freezing rain. AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN: The primary area of concern for late tonight into Friday will be in areas south of Interstate 20. The primary areas of concern for Saturday night into early Sunday morning will be in the western and northern sections of north Texas where temperatures will be coldest. TIMING: Most of the precipitation will occur in two rounds: 1) late tonight into Friday, and 2) Saturday night into Sunday. The greater coverage of precipitation, some of which may fall as freezing rain, will be Saturday night and Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is moderate confidence in the locations and timing of this forecast, with a confidence factor of 5 on a 10-point scale. The alternate scenarios are mainly tied to temperature trends on Saturday night and Sunday morning. If temperatures are 3-5 degrees colder than we are currently forecasting, then there will be a much higher potential for significant impacts. Likewise, if temperatures are 33 or higher when the steady rainfall begins, then few impacts would occur.
Posted on: Thu, 08 Jan 2015 19:45:36 +0000
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