Severe Weather Update October 1 WEDNESDAY-October 2 THURSDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Storms firing off to the west and southwest will slowly expand in coverage through the night and early morning hours, and may become strong-severe with spotty damaging winds gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado possible with the strongest of storms. Chance for rain 40%. Not as concerning as THURSDAY morning. THURSDAY Morning convection likely some possibly strong-severe with spotty gusts/small hail possible. Then afternoon cold front starts to really mix everything together. Storms will be expansive and any discrete storms could be supercellular with greatest large-very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. With the nature of shear profiles, dominance will be linear mode which indicates damaging winds. A squall line event maybe to what were looking at. Chance for storms 80%. -We have thunderstorm initiation taking place right now in central and south central and northwest-central Texas. This will likely continue to expand in coverage slowly, as well as intensity with support of an intensifying low level jet, but storms however are on the nose of this, so its not total influence. Storms will be capable of spotty damaging gusts, large hail, and maybe a brief tornado especially along and north of I-44. -Moving into THURSDAY things start to get hairy. The LLJ influence becomes more southerly and with the upper level jet stream amplifying, the vertical shear is not greatly impressive, but the horizontal profiles are impressive and will lead to likely linear segments, MCSs, and a possible damaging squall line. Before hand, storms firing ahead of the cold front may pose a threat to tap these shear parameters and produce an isolated tornado or two and very large hail. Main threat after discrete cells suppress will be damaging winds, small hail, and possible gustnadoes or brief tornadoes with the probable squall line. Im fairly confident in this set up but if there is to be hindering in this storm setup would be, instability values not as high as anticipated due to earlier convection, shift in jet stream and surface low placement and intensity. Again fairly confident. The greatest storm threat will be from about a little before afternoon through midnight. So we have a Large window for severe weather. Morning convection maybe something to watch to increase tornado threat. Stay tuned for the morning update with short term guidance. It should also be noted that an upgrade to a moderate concerning damaging winds. Hopefully tomorrow morning I can have a less scary post. Quick question should the outlooks be less technical and more to the point or this fine?
Posted on: Thu, 02 Oct 2014 03:10:19 +0000
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