***Short Term Discussion from WFO Balt/Wash*** SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00Z GUIDANCE STILL ON BOARD WITH THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO...TWO NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS APPROACH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC (THE PRIMARY FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE SECONDARY FROM THE CANADIAN SHIELD) ALONG WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FROM FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY NRN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SRN STREAM TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A SECOND PHASING WITH THE SECONDARY NRN STREAM TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP LWX ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM THE COASTAL LOW...BUT UNDER THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST FROM THE OH VLY AND THE COASTAL LOW FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE 00Z NAM HAS A RATHER DEVELOPED TROUGH ALONG THIS ENERGY TRANSFER ZONE (FROM THE UPR TROUGH TO THE COASTAL LOW) ACROSS LWX WHICH...IF STATIONARY...COULD PRODUCE HEADLINE-WORTHY SNOW. CONTINUED A HIGH POP WITH LOWER QPF APPROACH. THE COLUMN IS COLD WITH SFC TEMP DETERMINING SNOW OR RAIN. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN MIXING IN INCREASES EAST FROM I-95 WITH ESSENTIALLY ALL SNOW WEST. PRECIP ONSET LOOKS TO BE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG MARCH SUN AND TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AGAIN...A VERY POWERFUL STORM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST...BUT LWX IS JUST OUT OF THE REACH OF THE WORST OF IT. THE STORM TRACK HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO A DEVIATION WEST IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WIND STILL LOOKS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
Posted on: Sun, 23 Mar 2014 15:36:00 +0000
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