Sitting in Melbourne, I am appalled by the way the electronic and print media has covered the J&K election. From suggesting that Dr Heena Bhat of the BJP was leading in Amira Kadal and that we were witnessing a tectonic shift in the states politics to suggesting that an NC-BJP alliance was about to happen with Omar cancelling his London visit, it is shoddy ill informed reporting that betrays a lack of knowledge of even the most rudimentary understanding of the states politics. Here are my 9 of 10 predictions (the last one later) 1. The NC and the PDP will never form an alliance for a variety of reasons including the fact that they compete for the same space. Will AIDMK and DMK ever form an alliance ? 2. The NC will not be a partner in any new government. No one today can afford to touch it. It is the only untouchable party today, given its performance in the election (even though marginally better than predicted) and its track record over the last 6 years. The challenge for the NC will be to keep its flock together over the next 6 years. 3. The PDP will form the next government with Mufti Sayeed as chief minister. 4. The PDPs greatest challenge is to how to reach out to Jammu and Ladakh. Two possible ways: reach out to the BJP rebel from Udhampur, and make three of its Jammu stalwarts Ministers straight way including Rangeel Singh and a Sharma and a Thakur and make them part of the Legislative Council in the next 6 months. 5. The BJP will sit in opposition and offer outside issue-based support to the PDP and seek delimitation and greater empowerment of Jammu. 6. The Congress will seek to be part of the government, but may settle for supporting the PDP from outside (this is still in the twilight zone!) 7. Sajad Lone, Hakim Yasin, MY Tarigami (if his party allows him), and Engineer Rashid will be part of the new govt. 8. This government will have the full support of Prime Minister Modi and his government on all developmental issues 9. This government will, however, have the shortest possible honeymoon period, and will have to show that it means business within the next 6 months.
Posted on: Thu, 25 Dec 2014 13:59:49 +0000
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