Slow, steady race to Ogun 2015 IF the 2015 gubernatorial election in Ogun State will be decided by public opinion, then Governor Ibikunle Amosun of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will stand an outside chance of retaining power at the Oke Mosan Government House next year. From the very first day Amosun assumed power in 2011, it became obvious that the governor had never had it well with some of the party faithful, including the former governor of the state, Chief Olusegun Osoba, representatives of the party in the National Assembly and some other key stakeholders. Since then, the Ogun APC stakeholders have not ceased from accusing the governor of hijacking the party structure, which, they claimed, the governor used effortlessly to ride his way to power. The internal friction within the rank and file of the ruling APC had badly degenerated to the excitement of the rival parties, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which are waiting in the wing not only working towards the ouster of Amosun, but also a total depletion of the APC. One of the aggrieved APC senators in the state told The Guardian in a recent interview that anything could happen “if the national leadership of the party continues to take undue position over the matter.” With the ongoing situation in the ruling Ogun APC and the desperation of the PDP to control the Southwest zone, the race to succeed Amosun in 2015 is getting more heated, as political gladiators have stepped up their politicking in the last few weeks. Interestingly, the three main parties — APC, PDP, and Labour Party (LP) — have embarked on rigorous mobilisation of new members, while the aggrieved are being wooed, to increase their ranks. Similarly, lesser known parties like the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), which went underground after the 2011 general elections, National Conscience Party (NCP), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Accord Party (AP), among others, are doing underground works to ensure a better outing during the polls. At the last count, besides the incumbent, over 11 aspirants, spread across the three main parties, have shown interest in the February 21, 2015 gubernatorial election in the Gateway State. Those who have shown interest include former candidate of the PPN in the 2011 governorship election, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI); former Minister of Mines and Steel, Sarafadeen Tunji Ishola; gubernatorial aspirant in the 2011 election on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Aare Remi Bakare; a serving member of the House of Representatives, Isiaq Abiodun Akinlade; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole, who suffered a serious setback in his attempt to return to the House in 2011; a three-term Chairman of Abeokuta South Local Government, Yanju Lipede and Tony Ojesina. Others are: former Chairman of Ifo Local Government, Sikirulahi Ogundele; a former member of the House of Representatives, Jelili Kayode Amusan; Chairman of Mobilisation Committee of the Southwest PDP, Alhaji Kashamu Buruji; former Commissioner for Information, Sina Kawonise; and Prof. David Olufemi Bamigbose, who is contesting on the platform of the Accord Party. While the PDP parades Akinlade, Amusan, Ogundele, Ojesina, Kashamu and Bankole, the LP has Isiaka, Kawonise, Ishola and Lipede. The only aspirant so far from the APC, aside from the incumbent governor, is Bakare, believed to be the arrowhead of the Osoba group. For now, nobody can predict accurately where the pendulum of victory would swing. Is APC ready to retain power in 2015? WHILE political analysts are of the view that Amosun would return for his second term due to incumbency factor, keen observers claim that it would take extra efforts for the APC to return to the Oke-Mosan Government House based on the lingering internal wrangling that has polarised the party lately. The division in the rank and file of the party in the state, which reared its ugly head immediately Senator Amosun emerged as the standard bearer of the party, was kept as a top secret until the bubble finally burst. Though the party’s top echelons in the state had repeatedly denied the existence of factions, reports have it that there are two main factions — the Senator Ibikunle Amosun Group (SIA Group), comprised mainly by those who followed him from the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), whom he is allegedly using as his stooges to benefit largely from the spoils of office and the main members of the defunct ACN, known as the Matagbamole Group, who have sympathy for a chieftain of the party, Aremo Osoba. The bone of contention between Amosun and Osoba is a battle of egos, on who controls the political structure of the APC. Both are allegedly trying to outwit one another by ensuring that their candidates are imposed on others and subsequently elected into political offices. This fact was obvious in the state and local government congresses held earlier in the year, where parallel officials emerged in the camps. Rather than resolving the imbroglio, the national body of the party solidly stood behind the Amosun faction in continuation of the party’s policy of handling over the structure in the APC states to the incumbent governors, a situation that further worsened the crisis. Currently, the war within the APC is an ideological one, thus difficult to resolve, which could be the reason for the recent defection of strong party leaders to the PDP across the country. The Action Group of Nigeria factor AS it stands today, the 2015 governorship election in Ogun State might be a repeat of the 2011 election, when the then ruling PDP lost control due to the emergence of factions within its ranks, which eventually led to an exodus of a faction, led by former Governor Gbenga Daniel, to the PPN. This can be hinged on the fact that Osoba is planning to create a new party — Action Group of Nigeria (AGN) — and may leave the APC with majority of its strong members in the state. In addition to the three senators solidly behind Osoba, six House of Representatives members, some state legislators, Amosun’s deputy, Segun Adesegun and some local government elected officials could take the exit door and bid the party goodbye few months before the general elections. This ultimately would spell doom for the Ogun APC in 2015. Political pundits are also factoring that if the Yewa zone, which has been aggrieved for being sidelined in ruling the state since 1999, pitches its tent with Osoba and Akinlade, a House of Representatives member from the zone, who is most likely to emerge as the flagbearer of the AGN, the ruling APC stands the chance of losing abysmally at the polls. While Senator Odunsi, who also hails from the zone, can add to the party’s chances; Senator Adegbenga Kaka and another House of Representatives member, Bukola Buraimo, will mobilise people at the Ijebu district, and Senator Gbenga Obadara, Adekunle Adeyemi representing Ifo/Ewekoro Constituency in the House of Representatives will rally people of Ogun Central to oust Amosun from power. This scenario, however, is not full-proof, as the biggest beneficiary of the APC internal crisis may be the PDP, which already has a well-oiled structure waiting to be activated in the state. PDP’s chances of regaining power in 2015 THE PDP secretariat, located opposite the NNPC Mega Station, Kobape Road, Abeokuta, which had been bereft of activities since the party was dusted in the 2011 governorship election, is coming alive with political activities. Posters of aspirants have adorned walls and billboards surrounding the secretariat. In truth, since the PDP defeat in the 2011 governorship election, the party has had a tough experience coming together as the main opposition. Rather, it has been the LP, which had been a thorn in the flesh of the APC, challenging some of the policies of the Amosun-led administration. Coupled with the dismembering of the party after its ouster from the government house, most of the PDP leaders went underground, leaving the opposition turf unchallenged for the LP. For instance, the likes of Elder Joju Fadairo, a former chairman of the party; former Speaker Dimeji Bankole and even former President Olusegun Obasanjo, among others, have kept mute over the affairs of Ogun PDP. So, until recently, nobody had considered the PDP as a threat to the second term ambition of Governor Amosun, but the lingering imbroglio in the APC and the ongoing realignment in the PDP for President Goodluck Jonathan’s reelection has injected life into the party and all looks good for it to actually unseat the incumbent, if their calculations are worked out well. Reliable sources disclosed that the realignment of forces by the PDP is a direct consequence of its recent loss in Osun State to the APC. This seems to be paying off with the defection of the Ondo State Governor, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, seen as a major boost for the psyche of its members in the Southwest. One of the factors that could aid PDP’s come-back is the defection of the former Deputy Governor, Alhaji Rafiu Ogunleye and his followers to the party, before the APC came into being. Another calculation to boost the party’s chance is ongoing moves to woo aggrieved leaders back to its fold. Should the calculation of the old PDP leaders work out, former Governor Daniel, Alhaji Jubril Martins-Kuye, Bankole, Senator Lekan Mustapha and a host of other aggrieved PDP members might be brought together with Kashamu to present a formidable front against the APC. All things being equal, with this in place, there won’t be any opposition to withstand their united force. Labour Party also in the reckoning AN option being weighed in the unfolding political scheming in Ogun is the possibility of a merger deal between the PDP and LP. Former governor Gbenga Daniel and Governor Mimiko, who recently defected to the PDP, are reportedly working relentlessly to achieve this unification. But for now, the next opposition party after the PDP is the LP. With the strong support from Daniel, the party is becoming a serious threat to the ruling APC, as it gives it sleepless nights, while it (LP) waxes stronger by the day. With some of the former old horses from the PDP already in the LP and allies of Daniel, who decamped with him, the LP is assumed to stand a better chance of causing a big scare to the APC in the February 14, 2015 elections. The only problem the LP may likely encounter is the effect the cross-carpeting of Mimiko would have on the strength of the party in terms of supports from outside the state. The aspirants and what will go for them WHO wears the crown and what are the chances of the gladiators in the coming election? Only one or two of the aspirants in the race may pose threats to the incumbent, but the most of them are in as a cover to adopt President Jonathan as their candidate in the 2015 elections. This is an indication that some of them might also be settled to support the governorship candidate that gets the blessing of Mr. President. Senator Ibikunle Amosun Despite the odds seemingly stacked against him at present, what may go for Governor Amosun is his assumed political factor on his own, which the then ACN used to regain Ogun State after losing it to the PDP in the 2003 elections. Another factor that may help his re-election is his ability to deliver to the satisfaction of the people of Ogun State. Indeed, in the 16 years of democratic rule, Amosun has been identified as the most effective governor in terms of infrastructure development. His aides have been flaunting this, and particularly his policies in education, welfare of staff, past and present, and increase in IGR. Mr. Soyombo Opeyemi, Special Assistant on Media to Governor Amosun, laid out the administration’s achievements in these fields. He said in the face dwindling returns from the Federation Account, Amosun’s government has not wavered or even for a second reconsidered the implementation of its free education policy from the nursery level to secondary school. “Today, through the free education policy of the Amosun government, enrolment figure at JSS level has shot up from 174,820 in 2011 to 214,837. The figure has increased from 146,737 to 162,536 at the SSS level. “Due to improvement in our technical education, some children now move from JSS to such schools while the majority proceed to SSS, which is a big plus for our drive in vocational/technical education. “Within two years of the Amosun government, our children in the nursery schools have been provided with 3,200 chairs, 800 tables, 17,043 two-seater desks and 10,900 two-seater desks with shutters. 7,148 tables and 14,296 chairs have also been provided for their teachers.” On welfare of workers, Mr. Opeyemi said the Amosun government had paid above the minimum wage, and implemented it across board, “thus making it the only government to achieve such a milestone in Nigeria.” He said it had offset the inherited bonuses and allowances of workers from 2008 to 2011, paid union dues, cooperative deductions and their bank loans, which the previous government deducted but failed to remit. “The government cleared the promotion arrears of thousands of Ogun workers, including teachers due since 2008,” he said. “The governor is also paying the pension and gratuity arrears of workers that had served the state meritoriously, which he inherited from the previous administration.” Soyombo stressed that the Amosun government, as a matter of deliberate policy, does not owe workers a dime, adding, “but because of the belief that government is a continuum, we have to clear the Augean stable; and we are doing this.” “The Amosun government has been clearing the backlog of pension and gratuity from 2007. Imagine if we had such billions of naira now used to offset inherited debts for development the billions could have built up to 10 flyovers!” He credited the Amosun administration with raising the state’s IGR from the N730 million per month, inherited from the Daniel administration, to N5 billion a month. He said this was achieved by blocking the loopholes inherent in the old system and entrenching a culture of e-payment in the system. Isiaq Abiodun Akinlade A three-term member of the House of Representatives, representing the Ipokia/Yewa South federal constituency since 2003, he contested the governorship primaries on the platform of the ACN in 2011. He has found his way back to the PDP after a brief stay in the LP. If the Yewa zone is actually serious in its pursuit of taking a shot at the governorship seat, Akinlade stands a chance of being the first Yewa man to rule the state. But like in the past where internal wrangling among politicians from the zone spilled their chances, the emergence of Isiaka, who also hails from the zone, may hamper his chances. It was the same problem that occurred in 2011 when Isiaka and Gen. Tunji Olurin of the PDP then divided the votes of the zone. Sina Kawonise He was the Commissioner for Information under Daniel’s administration and a loyal ally of the former governor. This earned him an appointment in the Compass Newspapers, then owned by Daniel, after they left power. Though he pulls crowd at present, but like Isiaka, he is seen as somebody who Daniel allegedly used to amass wealth at the expense of the residents of Ogun. He may face serious opposition to emerge as governor of the state. Dimeji Bankole As a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, he stands the chance of winning the number one seat in the state if he eventually scales through the primaries. Many people believe that his age would be an added advantage. The greatest problem confronting him is that he has not gotten the blessing of the Presidency. It is believed that the Presidency has not forgotten the role he played at the twilight of the late Musa Yar’Adua’s administration, when then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan was to become President. Bankole reportedly played a hide-and-seek game along with acclaimed Northern cabals and in the process, he was consumed. Gboyega Nasir Isiaka As the governorship candidate of the PPN in the last general election, he is expected to use his wealth of experience to pick the ticket in LP and eventually win the election. But he is considered as a man with no “liver”, considering his disappearance after his defeat in 2011. Due to his closeness to Daniel, he may find it difficult to win the governorship election. Prince Yanju Lipede He was the Ogun State coordinator of Goodluck/Sambo Presidential Campaign Organisation in 2011, when Daniel was the Southwest coordinator. He is considered as the best candidate to emerge from the LP and consequently win the governorship seat in 2015. His undoing is what people consider as his no-nonsense stance and principles, which many are afraid of. Sarafadeen Tunji Ishola Considered as a very strong politician, and an Egba man that may be used to counter Amosun, who also hails from Ogun Central, analysts, however, claim he can’t go far because he doesn’t have a mind of his own. Another issue is that if elected, people would see it as a continuation of Daniel’s administration because he played a key role as the Secretary to the State Government, though he later joined former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s camp. Jelili Kayode Amusan He is a two-term member of the House of Representatives, who represented Obafemi/ Owode/Abeokuta North/Odeda federal constituency between 2003 and 2011 under the platform of the PDP. His albatross is the internal crisis within the state PDP that has pitched him against Kashamu, the acclaimed financier of the party in the state. He also seems to be pursued by unseen forces, considering the invasion of his campaign office in Abeokuta by some operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) a few months ago. Aare Remi Bakare He was pushed out of the race in 2011 when Amosun eventually emerged as the flagbearer of the ACN. But now, as the arrowhead of the opposition in the Osoba caucus of the Ogun APC, he is ready to slug it out with the governor. An Egba indigene and businessman, Bakare would key his governorship ambition into Osoba’s new party or any political party, which the group wants for him. David Olufemi Bamigbose A Professor of Educational Administration and Management, he is contesting under the Accord Party (AP). His philosophy is that the two major parties, the APC and PDP, have had their share of power but had failed to draw Ogun State out of its economic and social challenges. Although Bamigbose is not known to have a strong political structure, he is relying on the various outreaches to the masses, through philanthropy, to work for his ambition. In a recent interview with The Guardian, he said the AP is strong enough to oust Governor Amosun. But how feasible his belief is will be tested during the 2015 elections.
Posted on: Thu, 04 Sep 2014 15:27:24 +0000