So I took a short nap as I expect to stay up late and get up early due to this storm.. This happened to me for all the major winter storms and hurricanes so I guess the meteorologist spirit really is in me.. I then wake up to TWC (of course) and I see that they dropped NYC to 8-12 and even less in surrounding NW areas.. I definitely had my WTF face on to say the least.. I also had several TNR readers ask me questions about this.. Whoever came up with their most recent snowfall map for the area not only deserves to be fired, but they should also be forced to run laps outside in this blizzard wearing nothing but their undergarments.. Hows that for their storm coverage?!? Dont get me wrong, I have nothing against TWC and who knows, they could end up being right.. If they are, God Bless them.. But here are 3 major reasons why what they did is the wrong move.. It would not only result in them having egg on their face but it could be outright dangerous.. 1: They are taking the most reliable model for several recent big winter storms and hurricanes out of the equation.. The Euro Model has been money more than any of the other models in big spots like this, including with Sandy and with Junos sibling Nemo 2 years back.. Accuweather finally took the hint and wisely switched their forecast maps to the Euro, which has been on the higher end of the anticipated snowfall.. Ive been Euro all the way with this storm and Im not jumping ship now.. 2. The have all of their eggs in one basket (speaking of egg on their faces).. They are banking on a sharp drop off in accumulations outside of Suffolk as well as a more eastward track.. But what they arent taking into consideration is banding.. Even if Juno does take a more eastward track, it only takes one stubborn band to get the job done.. We just had a persistent band almost right over the LIE for a few hours that was dropping an inch an hour.. As a result, I am eyetesting 4-6 in my area in western Suffolk already.. But believe it or not, NYC had a band that dropped 8-10 inches in an hour!!!! This happened in the Feb 2006 Blizzard (while besting LI by 10-12).. It could potentially happen again.. This catapulted that storm in to the #1 spot for Central Park.. There are plenty of doubters out there that are thinking Juno will be a dud and will be outside cavorting around in the city.. Then boom, you get a super band resulting in everyone outside is screwed at the time in the heavy snow and wind.. It would catch everyone off guard as Juno is certainly capable of it; so you have to account for that in your forecast.. Millions of people are depending on and watching them too as they are the biggest weather network.. Thankfully, there are 3,500+ people that dont have to worry about that :D 3. The most important!! They are going against the Norris Report.. I have owned them several times for some of the biggest storms including Irene, Sandy, and Nemo.. I have the notes to prove it as well.. For big storms like Juno, you never just forecast for the low end only and rule out big hypotheticals that could wind up biting u in the ass.. TWC gets the ComeOn Man for this one!! Juno Update: 6:00PM 1/26 Update: So we have had a persistent light to moderate snow over LI for the past few hours.. We have even had a persistent heavy band situated over the LIE with snowfall rates of an inch per hour.. Again, I am eyetesting 4-6 in my area in western Suffolk and this is just the beginning.. NYC has been on and off but they have a couple inches already as well.. However, the radar is beginning to fill in with more moderate and heavy snow.. This is the beginning of the meat and potatoes of this storm.. Juno should continue to rapidly intensify resulting in heavier precipitation and higher winds.. The worst of the storm will past through tonight into Tuesday morning.. The snow will lighten up to light snow during the day Tuesday, taper off to scattered snow showers during the late afternoon before ending sometime tomorrow evening/night.. It should clear up overnight Tuesday and the sun should return for Wednesday for the big dig out.. Again, it is definitely advised to hunker down and stay in for the short term.. Definitely dont drive out in this either as all the major roads are closed and the side roads are impassible.. If we all adhere to this, the professionals can treat the roads quicker and more efficiently.. I will continue to provide intermittent updates throughout the night including snow totals.. I will continue to pass along any important info too.. Feel free to share yours as well..
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 00:11:01 +0000
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