Some notes on the storm threat this weekend.... 1) Sorry, the once-reliable European forecast model turned tail in its past two runs and now forecasts the track of weekend storm to be from the lower Great Plains into the eastern Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Valley. Keep in mind that secondary cyclogenesis over the Delmarva Peninsula is a good possibility late Saturday. So what will be a very heavy rain/wind and thunderstorm event from Texas through Dixie and most of the Eastern Seaboard could be involved with lots of icing across the interior Northeast and Quebec Eastern Townships. WI/IL/W MI and C ON is probably looking at a rain changing to snow scenario. While by no means a major winter storm there, accumulations are not out of the question. 2) Note that there are dual components to this system over the eastern Pacific Ocean, grabbing energy and moisture form extensive tropical forcing southwest of Hawaii. This storm has a chance to be quite strong, with wind again a concern. 3) Cold air advection will follow this combinant feature, and I think most of the time in the Midwest into the East Coast January 5 - 9 will be quite cold. 4) January Thaw, need I remind you all again, will be January 10 - 19 with wide-scale warming east of the Continental Divide. The Thaw set-up is often a wet one with another heavy rain/thunder threat looming around the middle of the month. With the GFS and GGEM series already showing extensive -EPO/-AO ridging around that time, odds favor a sharp temperature drop sequence for the last third of the month.
Posted on: Tue, 30 Dec 2014 21:51:40 +0000
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