Some serious weather coming up. Lets talk. 1) A shortwave dropping out of Alberta will take a track through the Corn Belt, likely close to or just south of Interstate 70. On Tuesday and Wednesday, some locations from NE and IA into the Mid-Atlantic region (I am guessing between the Potomac River watershed and the lower Hudson Valley) may see 1 - 3 inches of snow, with a few lollipops into the 5 range. Not a big deal, but someone could experience icy roads in the process. 2) An overlooked-by-many storm with components (A,B,C) scattered over the West and near Baja California will consolidate into a single low pressure center in Mexico within 48 hours. With the subtropical moisture feed at work, heavy rain and thunderstorms will curl back around the developing system, spreading ice and snow through parts of NM, N TX, and S OK. The shallow nature of the cold layer may enable a change of rain to freezing rain and sleet as far south as a line from Austin TX to Leesville LA. The Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and Interstate 20 corridor as a whole from NM to SC) are probably looking at a tough time with nocturnal icing at some point in the January 21 - 23 time frame. Thunderstorms are probable along the Interstate 10 route east of San Antonio TX to Jacksonville FL. There is a decent possibility that this system will recurve and spread mixed or frozen types as far north as Virginia on the 24th. 3) The major concern I have is that the European ensemble group takes another shortwave from the Prairie Provinces and drops the energy into what looks to be a neutral/negative 500MB trough over the eastern third of the continent. Persistent high atmospheric heights near the Grand Banks would keep this system from recurving out to sea. The ECMWF 240 hour panel strongly suggests that the low will deep, go vertical, and bank north-northwest into Maine. If this scenario verifies, then all of the no snow in my backyard whining in the Interstate 95 cities above Richmond VA will turn to cries for warmth and no snow. Still time to watch this; no guarantees. But that Kona Low and sub-Aleutian mAk vortex, both primed by tropical forcing over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific Ocean, are features that favor some for real winter weather in much of the nation. Sleep well tonight ;)
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 00:03:37 +0000