Some sobering thoughts to ponder in Magnus Linklaters opinion column from The Times today... Let us hope the lady isn’t for turning left Magnus Linklater Published at 12:01AM, December 30 2014 Nicola Sturgeon faces a struggle to deliver free child care and greater equality in the face of economic uncertainty As a piece of detailed research, it leaves something to be desired. But a quick check of post-Christmas sales reveals a marked difference between the experiences of upmarket shops — the places you venture into in the hope that spending more than you intended will substitute for a lack of inspiration — and those at the popular end of the retail business. While supermarkets, chain stores, and, of course, online sites, seemed swamped with customers — at least in Edinburgh — the posher outlets were recording, at best, standstill sales and, at worst, a distinct dip. On this slender foundation, I base the conclusion that Scotland is a nation that still remains uncertain about its future. Experience suggests that when an economy begins to slow down, elections loom and there is talk about a changing tax regime, it is the higher-spending sector that is the first to hold back. Rather like antelope on the veldt, which scent rain in the air long before it comes, the middle class tends to be the first to detect a downturn. And what they have detected is that the apparently decisive outcome of the referendum has decided very little about the country’s political future. Far from accepting the verdict of the people, supporters of independence seem determined to question it; this, they say, is merely a pause in the march towards separation; that 45 per cent Yes vote has become a totem of unstoppable change. Meanwhile, the precise nature of the SNP administration remains unresolved. Are we in the hands of a government committed to social reform, more public spending and an ever more interventionist state, or one that recognises the economic realities and is prepared to take steps to address them? The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, in her early public statements, has shown caution rather than commitment. Her speeches on the economy have spoken of the need to encourage the private sector. Business, she says, “has nothing to fear” from her administration. She knows perfectly well that unless the Scottish economy grows, none of her promises to promote equality and continue to fund a generous public sector can be fulfilled. “Equality and prosperity,” she told business leaders last month “should not be seen as enemies of each other, but as partners. One reinforces the other”. That, of course, is a fine aspiration. But how, in terms of practical policy, is it to be delivered? And how, more to the point, is it to be reconciled with the signals being sent out on taxation, land reform, and property ownership, which suggest that this is a government that intends to move to the left? Plans to raise the top rate of income tax, introduce a land and buildings transaction tax that could hit property values, and impose a rural land tax aimed at breaking up large estates may not quite add up to the “socialist agenda” as described by her Tory opponents, but the signals are being interpreted as indications of where the government wants to go. Murdo Fraser, the Conservative MSP, said that Ms Sturgeon promised to be “Scotland’s most left-wing first minister”. I doubt if that is true. Ms Sturgeon knows that she needs to encourage those who have signed on as new party members; they are mostly Yes supporters who were not previously affiliated to the SNP, but have joined up since the referendum in order to ensure that the heady momentum towards independence is sustained. To keep those new enthusiasts on board, while at the same time appealing to Labour supporters, and continuing the party’s growth through to the general election, she calculates that she has to send out strong messages about a commitment to social equality, and a fairer distribution of resources. That is the political message of the moment. However, she, more than most Scottish politicians, will be all too aware of the harsh realities ahead. As a former health minister, she knows that the NHS in Scotland faces a funding crisis, with one report suggesting that there is a shortfall of £450 million, with cuts already being imposed by local health authorities; the council tax freeze, which she has promised to address, has led to a reduction in some fundamental services; pressure on Scottish further education colleges has meant the loss of an estimated 120,000 places. There is a major question mark over the SNP’s promise to expand the provision of free child care and targets on the reduction of carbon emissions are being routinely missed. Most dire of all is the impact of falling oil revenues, with experts warning last week that the industry is “close to collapse” as a result of the almost halving of oil prices. As we report today Sir Ian Wood, the oil tycoon, warns that ten per cent of jobs in Scotland could go, amounting to 20,000 over the next five years — a body blow to one of the central foundations of the Scottish economy. How an independent Scotland would have survived against this grim background is hard to imagine. Ms Sturgeon must privately be thanking her lucky stars that she lost the referendum. If she had won and Scotland had gained independence, it would be embarking on its brave new future with an economy crippled at its heart. As it is, the first minister now has to deal with the impact of the oil crisis, not just in the form of job losses and cutbacks, but the wider impact on oil-related products, which are the country’s second biggest export. Delivering on generous promises to deliver free child care and greater social equality at the same time has become a whole lot harder. These are the kinds of challenges that the first minister’s predecessor, Alex Salmond, managed to dodge as he put his campaign for independence before everything else. Ms Sturgeon has no such luxury. She has to confront reality and deal with it urgently, otherwise she, her party, and the nation as a whole will suffer the fate of governments everywhere who fail the economic test — loss of support, humiliation, and ultimately defeat. This is the year that could make or break a so far untested leader. Whether the lady is for turning or not remains to be seen, but taking a turn to the left is the last thing she should be contemplating.
Posted on: Tue, 30 Dec 2014 10:30:56 +0000
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