Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook. Near average tropical cyclone numbers for the region is likely, with increased activity from February onward. Meteorological forecasting centres across the Southwest Pacific are predicting near average numbers of tropical cyclones (TC) for the 2014–15 season (November 2014 to April 2015). The 30-year average number of all (named) of TCs from 1981-2010 is 12.4 (10.4) in the Southwest Pacific each season from November to April. The outlook indicates that 8 to 12 named TCs are expected for the coming season. TC activity for Vanuatu and New Caledonia is anticipated to be below normal for this season, while elevated activity is expected for Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands. There is also an outlook of normal or above normal activity for countries situated close to the International Date Line (such as Wallis et Futuna and Tonga). It should be recognised that the season-long forecast reflects an expectation of overall reduced activity during the early season (November to January) and net increased activity in general during the late season (February to April). Note that the TC activity outlook for islands like New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga indicates two or more cyclones could interact with each of those countries during the season despite small differences from normal. At least one or more severe TCs (Category 3 or higher) could occur anywhere across the Southwest Pacific during the season. Read on Scoop Sci-Tech here : scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1410/S00048/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook.htm
Posted on: Wed, 15 Oct 2014 22:10:56 +0000
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