Special weather bulletin on Tropical Depression Special Weather Bulletin Thu, Nov 27, 2014 SPECIAL COMMUNIQUE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES ISSUED AT 11H00 ON THIS THURSDAY 27 NOVEMBER 2014. HISTORY: DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS STILL STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DUE TO THE PREVAILING UNFAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. IT HAS MOVED IN A GENERAL SOUTH WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 12 KM/H. THE MAXIMUM GUST NEAR THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO BE OF THE ORDER OF 70 KM/H WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 HPA AVERAGED OVER THE TIME PERIOD. POSITION AND MOVEMENT: AT 10H00 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 DEGREES SOUTH IN LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE 65.2 DEGREES EAST THAT IS AT A DISTANCE OF 1100 KM NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS. IT IS MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTH WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH A SPEED OF AROUND 12 KM/H AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS SPEED SUBSEQUENTLY. INTENSITY: THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING AND COULD NOT REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOW RISK FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE NAMED WHILE APPROACHING ST. BRANDON ISLANDS. EVOLUTION 1. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A SOUTH WESTERLY TRACK AT A MEAN SPEED OF 12 KM/H AND IS EXPECTED TO DECELARATE SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. 2. ALL PRESENTLY AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS. 3. THE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION WILL DECREASE IN THE NEIGHBOURHOOD OF MAURITIUS BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT DURING THE WEEKEND. 4a. WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS THE WEATHER WILL BE GRADUALLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SHOWERY PERIODS BECOMING MORE SIGNIFICANT DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE EAST SOUTH EASTERLY DIRECTION TO BACK TO NORTH EASTERLY WITH GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 65 KM/H BY SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE ROUGH. VENTURES AT OPEN SEA ARE NOT ADVISED. 4b. WEATHER OVER RODRIGUES. THE WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SLIGHT INTERMITTENT RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE EAST NORTH EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A MEAN SPEED OF 35 KM/H. THE GUSTS MAY REACHED 80 KM/H BY SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BE ROUGH. VENTURES AT OPEN SEA ARE NOT ADVISED. FUTURE SCENARIOS: 1. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER. 2.THE RAINFALL OVER MAURITIUS MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY. 3. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY PASS CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS. 4. RAINY, WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND. 5. SEAS WILL BE ROUGH AND VENTURES AT OPEN SEAS ARE NOT ADVISED. 6. NO CYCLONE WARNING IS PRESENTLY ENVISAGED OVER MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES. REMARKS: IN VIEW OF THE FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THE ABOVE FORECAST MAY BE REVIEWED AT SHORT NOTICE. PLEASE CONSULT THE REGULAR BULLETIN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW AT 11H00.
Posted on: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 07:40:35 +0000