Sport: Basketball (4* NBA Play of the Day) Market: Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Hawks -3 ½ points Odds: $2.01 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 10.30am AEDT Analysis: The Atlanta Hawks will be hungry for their first win of the season on Friday as they return home to face the Toronto Raptors. Despite allowing 57.1% shooting at Dallas on Wednesday, they hung tough and lost by a final of 109-118. Obviously, the defense isnt going to be nearly as bad at home, and Toronto isnt going to be nearly as hot at Dallas was the other night. The offense looked solid in scoring 109 points, and head coach Mike Budenholzer has been preaching defense heading into this one, especially in transition. If you sprint back, youve got to take care of the basket first, and then the ball and then the most dangerous (potential shooter) - in that order, Budenholzer said. A lot of times if it truly is transition, you dont end up with your own man. Point guard Jeff Teague had 24 points, nine assists and four steals while doing a nice job triggering Budenholzers new offense. Newcomer Paul Millsap scored 20 points from the power forward spot previously manned by Josh Smith, and another newcomer, Cartier Martin, added 17 points off the bench. We were running back to our own man; thats stuff you learn in second grade, Teague said. They were getting easy baskets. Weve got to get back in transition and match up. It doesnt matter who you guard. We made mistakes. Were learning. Were a new team. Well get better. We strongly believe the Hawks are underrated heading into the season due to the trade of Josh Smith in the offseason. Well, they return almost everyone except Smith, and Paul Millsap is an ample replacement. In fact, he is arguably the single-most underrated player in the entire league. We were more impressed with how the Hawks hung tough in Dallas in a losing effort than we were with Torontos 93-87 home victory over Boston to open the season. The Celtics are in full-blown rebuilding mode, and the Raptors struggled to put them away as an 8-point favourite. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight, while the Hawks arent getting enough. Atlanta has won nine of its last 11 meetings with Toronto. Take the Hawks -3 ½ points here for a strong 4 units in our 4* NBA Play of the Day. Sport: Basketball Market: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Pick: Total UNDER 188 ½ points Odds: $1.79 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 10.30am AEDT Analysis: The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Both of these teams are going to be solid defensively this year, but each is also going to be terrible offensively. That couldnt have been more evident than in the openers for each on Wednesday. Milwaukee lost 83-90 at New York in its opener while shooting just 45.9 percent from the floor. It did allow 50.7 percent shooting to the Knicks, but so for such a low-scoring game, that just shows the kind of slow pace they played at. Boston lost 87-93 at Toronto despite shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Again, it was such a low scoring game due to the slow pace. Brad Stevens is the new head coach at Boston. At Butler in college, Stevens always got the most out of this teams behind a suffocating defense. He even took the Bulldogs to the NCAA Championship twice, which is simply remarkable. He did that despite having a below-average offensive team in terms of points per game because they played at such a slow pace and relied on defense. Milwaukee boasts two of the best defensive big men in the league. Larry Sanders and John Henson have a ton of length and can alter shots as well as any tandem in the NBA. However, neither player is gifted offensively. So this is certainly going to be a defensive-minded Bucks team, especially after letting go of Monte Ellis and Brandon Jennings in the offseason. Both teams have injuries to guards that are really going to hamper their offensive production in the early going, and force them to play at an even slower pace. Milwaukee is expected to be without starting point guard Brandon Knight and backup point guard Luke Ridnour, leaving the unproven Nate Wolters to handle the PG duties. Boston is without Rajon Rondo (knee), while backup PG Avery Bradley is questionable with a head injury. The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series. Had one of those games not gone to overtime, the UNDER would be 8-1. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six vs. NBA Central opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bucks last five road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. NBA Atlantic foes. Take the UNDER 188 ½ points in this one for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: Pistons +8 ½ points Odds: $1.79 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11.00am AEDT Analysis: The Detroit Pistons are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. That was evident in their opener as they dismantled Washington 113-102 as only a 2.5-point home favorite. The Wizards are a hot pick this season to be much-improved, so it was a really good win. We love what Detroit has done this offseason. It has brought in Josh Smith, Chauncey Billups and Brandon Jennings. While Jennings is out with an injury, the Pistons did not miss him much as they scored 113 points on 50% shooting. Will Bynum had 19 points while Billups scored 16 to lead the Pistons backcourt. But the real reason this team is going to be so tough going forward is the length of the three big men in Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Monroe and Drummond were already arguably the most underrated big man tandem in the league, and when you throw Smith into the mix, this is going to be a tough team to deal with. Monroe scored 24 points in the opener, while Smith (19) and Drummond (12) had solid games as well. Conversely, we believe the Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams heading into 2013-14. Thats because they made the Western Conference Finals last year. However, they were aided by an injury to Blake Griffin in their series win over the Clippers, and then Russell Westbrook missed the entire series in the Conference Semifinals for Oklahoma City. Memphis true colors showed in the conference finals as they were swept in four games by the Spurs. The Grizzlies did nothing to improve their team this offseason, especially offensively. They lost 94-101 to San Antonio in the opener in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they shot just 41.9 percent from the floor. Sure, Memphis is going to be a good defensive team again this season, but so is Detroit with their trio of big men. Detroit is 72-49 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1996. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win. Detroit is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. the Pistons are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 or more points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pistons. We’ll gladly take the points here. Take the Pistons +8 ½ points in this one for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: New Orleans Pelicans @ Orlando Magic Pick: Pelicans -3 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 10.00am AEDT Analysis: The Magic have covered their first two games on the road against Indiana and Minnesota, while the Pelicans failed to cover in their home opener against the Pacers. We believe this has created excellent value on the far superior team in New Orleans. The Pelicans had a 16-point lead in the second half, before failing to execute down the stretch against one of the best defenses in the league. Finishing this game shouldnt be a problem. Orlando isnt strong enough on either side of the ball. This will also be the Magics third game in four days and we look for them to struggle to match the intensity of the New Orleans tonight. Despite losing, the Pelicans took it right up to the Pacers who are a genuine contender this year. Take the Pelicans -3 ½ here for a strong 4 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: Heat -3 ½ points Odds: $1.98 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 11.00am AEDT Analysis: The Heat come into this one off a shocking 110-114 loss at Philadelphia as a 9.5-point favorite. Miami opened the game in a 0-19 hole and clearly didnt show up to play. It shouldnt have come as a huge surprise. The Heat were without Dwayne Wade and likely celebrated getting their rings a little too much after beating Chicago 107-95 the night before. Miami is better than they were a year ago and will not fail to bring their A game tonight on ESPN. The Nets are popular pick to be a serious threat to dethrone Miami in the Eastern Conference, but its going to take some time before they reach their full potential. Brooklyn is also without head coach Jason Kidd, only making it that much more difficult against a complete team like the Heat. We strongly believe this line is a gift. Take the Heat -3 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: Nuggets -2 ½ points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: Midday AEDT Analysis: This is the perfect spot to jump on the Nuggets off a road loss at Sacramento. Denver is a completely different team on their home floor and will be extremely motivated to avoid starting the season 0-2. We were really disappointed with how the Trail Blazers played in their opener at Phoenix and we’re starting to think they arent going to be as improved as everyone expected. The other thing to remember is much like Denver, Portland is not the same team on the road. well gladly lay less than 3-points in a spot where you have a dominant home team against a weak road team. Look for Denver to bounce back in this one. Take the Nuggets -2 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick: Total UNDER 211 points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 1.30pm AEDT Analysis: The Los Angeles Lakers have opened their season with two high-scoring games against the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors. That has inflated this total tonight as they take on the San Antonio Spurs, and well side with the UNDER because of it. According to our preseason defensive ratings, the Spurs will be the most efficient defensive team in the league this season. That was evident in the opener as they held the Grizzlies to 41.9 percent shooting in a 7-point victory. The Spurs and Lakers are very familiar with each other considering they played in the playoffs last season. Kobe Bryant was out for that series, and he remains out. It was a very low-scoring series as they combined for 170, 193, 209 and 185 points in a San Antonio sweep. Thats an average of 189.3 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonights posted total of 207. The Lakers arent as bad defensively as what they showed against the Clippers and Warriors. They were tired playing the second of a back-to-back against the Warriors after beating the Clippers the previous night, which is the biggest reason they allowed 124 to Golden State. Off a poor performance on that end, and playing on national TV, we fully expect the Lakers to be much more into it defensively tonight. Los Angeles is 22-10 to the UNDER after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 17-5-1 in Spurs last 23 road games overall. The UNDER is 19-7 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in this series, including 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles. We got blown out of the water with a second half of 120 points in the Spurs game against the Grizzlies but don’t expect that to happen here. We’ve taken a few extra points as insurance on bet365. Take the UNDER 211 points here for 3 units. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Fri, 01 Nov 2013 21:58:38 +0000
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