Sport: Basketball Market: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Washington Wizards Pick: Wizards +5 ½ points Odds: $1.88 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: The Oklahoma City Thunder are running on fumes right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 8th game in 12 days, and their 11th game in 17 days. They simply dont have anything left in the tank, and that will show tonight against the Wizards. Washington will be out for revenge from a 105-106 road loss at Oklahoma City on November 10 as an 8.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. The thing about the Wizards is that they have a superstar stopper in Trevor Ariza, who can guard guys like Kevin Durant, Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony as well as just about anyone in the league. The Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season of late, winning six of their last 10 games overall. That includes victories over Miami, Chicago (twice), Phoenix and Golden State, which equates to five wins over playoff contenders during this stretch. They have bounced back to win from each of their last four losses as well. Washington is 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 53-34 ATS in their last 87 games as an underdog. Washington is 13-3 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Wizards +5 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: Total UNDER 183 ½ points Odds: $1.76 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: Midday AEDT Analysis: The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies today. We look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as both teams struggle offensively. Since January 10, the Grizzlies are allowing an NBA-best 88.8 points per game, which is 6.0 ppg less than second-place Chicago. They are also yielding a league-best 41.7 field-goal percentage over this span. They havent allow an opponent to score more than 90 during their current five-game winning streak. That doesnt bode well for the Bucks (8-38), who are scoring an NBA-low 91.9 points per game this season. The good news for the Bucks is that the Grizzlies havent reached 100 points in any of their last nine games. Plus, leading scorer Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 apg) is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury. This offense will really be out of sync if Conley cannot go. These teams have played in defensive battles in each of their last two meetings. Memphis won 90-80 at home in their final meeting of 2012-13 for 170 combined points. Memphis also won their first meeting of 2013-14 with an 82-77 road victory on January 15 for 159 combined points. We dont expect this game to come close to 180 combined points, either. Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of less than 25% over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER. Note we are getting a few extra points here on Betfair. Take the UNDER 183 ½ points in this one for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: Bulls +1 ½ points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: Midday AEDT Analysis: The Chicago Bulls continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league. Tom Thibodeau keeps producing a winner no matter who is on the floor. Its like they didnt even lose their best player in Derrick Rose, or trade away one of their best players in Luol Deng. Thibodeau could win coach of the year every year with what hes doing with this team. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 games overall, which includes a 98-86 road victory at San Antonio last time out on Wednesday. That means theyve had two days rest heading into this one. New Orleans has lost 10 of its last 14 games overall and should be a much bigger underdog tonight. It remains without two of its best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). It simply has not been able to make up for these two huge losses, and now leading scorer Anthony Davis (20.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) is banged up with a finger injury. Chicago wants revenge from a 128-131 overtime loss at home to the Pelicans in their first meeting of the season. That was a rare win for the Pelicans in this series as the Bulls have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series. The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to New Orleans dating back to 2009. The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Chicago. Take the Bulls +1 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons Pick: Total UNDER 216 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:30am AEDT Analysis: Here we have a matchup between two of the worst defences in the NBA, the 76ers are ranked last at 30th and the Pistons aren’t much better at 25th. The bookies are still riding on Philly’s crazy start to the season where they were scoring at will and putting up 125 points a game. However as the season caught up with the 76ers (as it was always going to) they have dropped off at the offensive end, now ranked 14th and scoring an average of 101.13 points per game. The Pistons are similar, ranked 17th with 99.73 points per game. Yes both these teams are capable of putting up big numbers on their day, but this is a big total, usually seen when the Blazers, Rockets or Mavericks are playing – not the mid table scoring teams. Both these teams will have to shoot a high % to cover this total and we just don’t see that happening as neither team is in very good form. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphias last 7 games on the road and The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphias last 11 games. Take the UNDER 216 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Hawks Win Odds: $1.75 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:30am AEDT Analysis: There’s no way the Timberwolves should be only giving up a couple of points here on the road to a solid Hawks team. The Wolves are improving and have a good starting line up, but this team is 10-14 on the road this season and the Hawks do protect their home turf, with a 15-7 record at home. Atlanta is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home. For all their improvement, the Wolves are likely to remaining hovering around the .500 mark all season and are 5-5 in their last 10 games. They don’t much like playing in Atlanta though. Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta. Atlanta is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota. Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games. We see no reason why things would turn around here and the Hawks should be too good in this one. We don’t need to lay any points and are happy with the SU odds. Take the Hawks to win here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: Kings +11 ½ points Odds: $1.84 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 12:30pm AEDT Analysis: The Spurs are enduring a season-long three-game losing streak while playing without Tiago Splitter (shoulder), Kawhi Leonard (hand), Danny Green (hand) and Manu Ginobili (hamstring). Splitter is the closest of the four to a return but is unlikely to suit up on Saturday against a Kings team who has kept it close in recent games. San Antonio put up a good fight when Splitter and Green first went down but the losses of Leonard and Ginobili are more difficult to cover despite the team’s depth. The Spurs are giving heavy minutes to a rotation of guards surrounding Tony Parker and even broke recent signing Othyus Jeffers into the starting lineup against the Bulls on Wednesday due to the need for a wing defender with Leonard out. San Antonio is slipping offensively over the last three contests and had a pair of starters (Jeffers and Jeff Ayres) go scoreless in the 96-86 loss to Chicago. Sac keeps this game close, +11 is too many points for them, a great deal of value here. Take the Kings +11 ½ points in this one for 3 units. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Sat, 01 Feb 2014 22:53:20 +0000
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