Sport: Cricket (KFC T20 Big Bash) Market: Sydney Sixers @ Melbourne Renegades Pick: Sixers Win Odds: $1.65 Agency: Sportingbet (Promo – score 150 runs and lose, money back) Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 7:45pm AEDT Analysis: There are a couple of interesting stats in this one. The Renegades gave the Thunder their first win in 19 games. The Sixers however, have never defeated the Renegades, but we think that will be the last time anyone can say that. The Renegades do gain Dwayne Bravo for this game which will be important for them as they lose BBL3 leading run scorer Finch and strike bowler James Pattinson to international duties, as well as all rounder Will Sheridan to injury. The Sixers are rolling along nicely and come in with pretty much the same side, adding only Chris Tremlett to the squad. The Renegades have struggled when Finch hasn’t made runs and have looked a lot more potent with Pattinson bowling. Without those two, we just can’t see how they can match it with the Sixers. Steve Smith has been a revelation for them in the middle order making plenty of runs, but also giving the top order some more confidence to play an attacking game. Brett Lee is bowling as well as he ever has (or close anyway) and the inclusion of Lyons to the squad gives them a very well rounded bowling attack. IT will take something pretty special from an Alex Doolan, stand in captain Ben Rohrer or debutant Dwayne Bravo to cause an upset here. Again we are taking advantage of the Sportingbet promo where if the Sixers make 150 runs and lose, it’s money back. Take the Sixers to win this one for a strong 4 units. Sport: Cricket (KFC T20 Big Bash) Market: Sydney Sixers @ Melbourne Renegades Pick: Most sixes – Sixers Odds: $1.89 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 1 Unit Game Time: 7:45pm AEDT Analysis: The Sixers are beginning to hit the maximums more often. In their first 3 games they hit 8 at an average of 2.7 per game but in their last 3, they have managed 16 at average of 5.3 per game, nearly double their early output. The Sixers have now hit 25 sixes in total at an average of 4.2 per game. Apart from Michael Lumb, they don’t really have an explosive big hitter, but are getting contributions from Smith, Maddinson and Enriques who are all hitting 1-2 sixes per game now. The Renegades have hit 27 sixes in their 6 games at an average of 4.5 per game. Whilst that looks solid at first glance, the absent Finch (12 sixes) and Jos Buttler (5 sixes) account for 17 of their 27 sixes so far in BBL3, leaving them with 10 sixes at average of 1.6 per game without their two biggest hitters. The slack will fall to Rohrer and Doolan, but so will the responsibility of making runs, which may temper their big hitting. Debutants generally don’t hit a lot of sixes as they want to contribute to the scoreboard and not go out caught on the boundary for 2 runs. The Renegades are likely to have two debutants in this one. Take the Sixers to hit more sixes than the Renegades for 1 unit. Sport: Cricket (KFC T20 Big Bash) Market: Sydney Sixers @ Melbourne Renegades Pick: Total Sixes – UNDER 10 ½ Odds: $2.01 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 2 Units Game Time: 7:45pm AEDT Analysis: A low scoring game saw our OVERs in the earlier game fall short and we’re jumping back on the UNDERs in this one. The bookies have the OVERs as the short bet here for a number of reasons. They will often do this to make it look like they have had to shorten the odds on an outcome because there are so many punters jumping on. This does actually work and punters like the comfort of believing that they are on the same outcome as the majority of punters out there. The only problem with this – the majority of punters don’t win consistently or over time. We’ll gladly take the over evens odds on the UNDERs in this one. As per our analysis above, the Sixers are in pretty good form with the big hits, averaging 5.3 per game over their past few. The Renegades look short in their batting line up, but their bowlers are still solid with Rimmington and Murali both economical. The Sixers have a good bowling line up and should prove difficult to put away. Without Finch and Buttler, the Renegades are averaging just 1.8 sixes per game and as their line up looks a little weak, there is a strong chance of a low scoring game. Etihad has seen 19 (Stars), 19 (Heat) and 2 (Thunder) in the three matches there at an average of 13.3 per game. The Stars and Heat have hit sixes at all grounds though as the two highest six hitting teams in the league. We think the two 19 six games are anomalies and we had this one at around 6-7 so there’s definite value here. Take the UNDER 10 ½ sixes here for 2 units. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Sat, 18 Jan 2014 07:50:27 +0000
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