Spurs in Six Before the NBA Finals, I correctly predicted that the teams would be tied after four games (albeit in the wrong order). I then split my Finals prediction into three scenarios, giving the Miami Heat in six the highest likelihood. After the San Antonio Spurs won game five, the Heat cannot win in six. Therefore, I am changing my prediction. I still think the series will go six games; I am just picking the other team. Spurs in six. Here’s why: Clinching Scenarios Including their first conference title in 1999, the Spurs have made four NBA Finals in their history. Not only have they won all four; they won three of four on their chance to clinch their series. The only time this did not happen was the 2005 series against the Pistons. Up 3-2 after five, the Spurs dropped game six before winning in seven. The Heat have not won back to back games in a series since the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Chicago. It is simply unlikely that they would start now against their toughest opponent in the 2013 postseason. The Spurs do not have to win back to back, but after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals, they are certainly more capable. Outside Shooting The media documented Danny Green’s ridiculous shooting streak throughout these playoffs, and deservedly so. He is 25 of 38 from three, a whopping 66 percent. Green is not the only one shooting well. The team shot 60 percent from the field in Game 5, with Manu Ginobli going 8 for 14 (57%). Gary Neal has also shot well, making 12 of 24 (50%) from behind the arc. The Heat have had no answer for the Spurs’ team effort from behind the arc. Unless some of their better defenders, such as Shane Battier and Norris Cole, get more minutes in Game 6, the Spurs will continue their shooting barrage. Tim Duncan While Tim Duncan has had his typical workhorse series, averaging 15.6 points and 11.2 rebounds per game, he has yet to have a break out game. Duncan had at least one game with 23 points in the first three series of the 2013 playoffs; that game has not yet come against Miami. It could mean Miami is just defending him really well, but it’s more likely that Duncan is due for that breakout game. He had 33 in Game 1 of the 1999 Finals, 32 in Game 1 in 2003, 26 in Game 5 in 2005, and 24 in Game 1 in 2007. While his break out game numbers dwindled every year, he is still due for a high-scoring game in this Finals. It could come tonight. The Heat were in this exact situation in 2011; down 3-2 after 5, going back to Miami. It would not be surprising if they got the same result, losing the series that everybody expected them to win from the outset. -MPlay
Posted on: Tue, 18 Jun 2013 21:15:55 +0000
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