Steering the course of epidemics. The case of the 2014 Ebola outbreak. youtu.be/LM_ITvY3PiU?list=UUGr-B0nrd40OIKZZ-5kXaXw When the Ebola filovirus first gains entry past the skin it is but a few hours before the active virions are in the bloodstream immune system, attacking cells, engaging the imune system, replicating and moving throughout the body along the circulatory system highway. From the very first day the hosts veins carry fully contagious replicating Ebola virions and from that day any droplet of blood containing even one virion, if it finds its way out of the circulatory system of that that human host and into the system of another person will infect that other person resulting in his blood rapidy becoming infected and contagious and making a bout with usually fatal Hemorrhagic fever inevitable. In other words the disease can be spread by the blood of a host very soon after the virus first arrives in his system and it is so contagious a week or two or three weeks before the symptoms of Hemorrhagic fever appear and in four percent of cases the Ebola carrying hosts infectious blood will be in a man who does not show symptoms for more than three weeks -- the longest period recorded being six weeks. How long an infected person will go before manifesting Hemorrhagic fever depends on many factors, but the most important of these is the number of active virions that make the intital assult on the internal system, whether the invasion involved billions of virions or millions or thousands or fewer. Replication to double the virion population takes time -- but only one active virion is needed to start in motion a war of conquest that usually ends in death. If one virion makes the migration the new host will take longer to exhibit their first symptoms of Hemorrhagic fever; if millions of virions achieve the migration the replicating of many virions from all of those will result in a much quicker onset of HR Symptoms. People shed small amounts of their blood more frequently and in more ways than they realize. Any break of the skin, normal menstruation discharge, a nosebleed, childbirth and blood mixed in the stool -- all these can put the virus outside the body of an infected person where it may be picked up by another who may then through touchbing the inside of his mouth, his eye or brushing his infected hand over small cut or scratched insect bit can fatally establish the active virus in a new host. Why is the CDC telling you something different? The CDC and the World Health Organization are aware that the blood of Ebola carriers is infectious from the first day. They also know the definite implications of this fact in the spreading of the disease person-to-person and person-to-object-to-person. Just the spreading by persons who have not yet exhibited symptoms is sufficient, if appropriate prophylactic measures, including telling the truth, are not employed. Ebola virus, unless quarantined, will, in a densly populationed community with free and fequent person-to-person contact, and object-to-person contact with objects commonly handled - must inevitably result in an epidemic of Hemorrhagic fever. There is no escaping the logic of this problem. The virus-infected blood is infectious and potentially communicable within hours of initial infection. It stays communicable throughout the course of the disease. 94% of persons infected by Ebola will exhibit symptoms within 21 days. 99% will show symptoms within 25 days. One percent will have infected blood for a longer period (up to six weeks) before showing Hemorrhagic fever symptoms. During this time any loss of blood in any amount places Ebola virus in the environment where it may find its way to a new host. If a tiny speck of EV infected blood drips or smears on some surface and another person gets that speck on their hand and touches their hand to their mouth where it is ingested or connects to an open sore in the mouth the infection of a new host will be accomplished. The virus can remain active (infectious) for days on many surfaces, in a bathroom, and a school gym, on a door handle, a gas station pump handle, communion bread, a bowel of pretzels, a photograph of a lover etc. These facts make for very high probablility of an epidemic if proper measures are not taken and especially if people are not informed. To prevent an epidemic or pandemic a quarantine proceedure must be devised that will take into account the important fact that people carry infectious blood for weeks before Hemorrhagic fever symptoms appear. The CDC denies everything said above. So has the World Health Organization. Instead they are spreading the falsehood that Ebola virus is not capable infecting another through contact with blood or in any other way until Hemorrhagic fever symptoms first appear. They tell people that as long as a person is not yet exhibiting symptoms they cannot at that time be a source of contagion to others. This lie has killed thousands. This lie may become the most fatal lie every told. Here is a CDC information graphic promoting the lethal lie. Why do they put out information that is not true, information that can only foster the spread of the virus because it misleads people to let down their guard where it is most important that careful measures be taken? The reason they lie to us is found in a medical journal where exactly that lie is recommended to prevent people from fleeing an infected area to get away from infectious carriers without symptoms. They are protecting themselves at the expense of millions of people who do not matter. The decision was first made in handling an earlier outbreak in Zaire. Read this passage from the British Medical Journal (Bennett D., Brown D. Ebola virus. BMJ. 1995 May;310(6991):1344–1345. ) Experience indicates that nursing supplies, disinfectants, case identification measures, and the isolation and supportive care of ill patients are likely to be best provided where the outbreak is base, once international responses are in place. Public health officials must not only effect these measures but convince local people that they minimise risk not only to other communities but to themselves by staying put. Reassuring the public that people who have not been ill cannot transmit Ebola, even if they are infected, is difficult but crucial. Specific guidance to consultants in communicable disease control, public health doctors, and port medical offiers have been issued swiftly here and in similar countries unlikely to be affected by the outbreak. The response has been low key, with no quarantine placed on travellers from Zaire who are not ill and therefore not infectious. timely communications and a coordinated response from clinicians, public health specialists, and virologists seem to have minimized media overreaction and public concern. In other words -- the CDC and the WHO know that if people realize that Ebola is in the bloodstream and is perfectly infectious (one virion moving from one hosts blood to the bloodstream of a new host is 100 percent sufficient to bring the full disease (contagious blood, Hemorrhagic fever, probable death) people would will at once flee the region. They also know that if people flee an infected region in large numbers that there will be some probability that a number of infected-blood carriers who have no symptoms yet will flee with them. So instead of taking the facts of the disease and how it infects others and devising a defense plan to defeat exactly that kind of virus attack -- they resort to lying to people to keep them contained while deceiving them into thinking that they have nothing to fear from Ebola infected people not showing symptomseven though their blood is full of transmissible contagion). The lie exists to trick people (West Africans and now Americans) into staying in harms way without knowing that they are in harms way. The lie is designed to protect the distant at the expense of making the epidemic as terrible as possible in infected areas. When the CDC tells Americans that the disease cannot be spread by a host unless the host first shows the symptoms -- they show that they are fully accepting that the epidemic will spread here (because people do not know that they need to guard against the contagious-blood carrier who is in his one, two or three week period of not showing symptoms. This is a conspiracy against everyone in the path of the virus -- the CDC and WHO are holding the door wide open for the virus to enter. What disease control authorities should have done and should be doing now. The most helpful thing to do would be to tell the people in countries where the virus is spreading exactly how early any blood from an infected becomes contaminating -- and that it does so long before fever and vomiting begin. The proper defense measure is to provide safe places where people can flee too, letting them flee with a clear understanding that some of those fleeing have already been invaded by Ebola virus on the speck of someone elses blood. In other words, those fleeing must be fleeing to places both of safety and of containment. People must know that they are going to a place guaranteed safe -- by HONEST authorities and that at this safe place they will be protected from the diseased blood and other fluids carried by infected people without symptoms who may have fled with them. That is a costly procedure - and the money does not go to vaccine makers -- and that is the procedure the WHO and the CDC rejected when they chose instead to go with lies about blood not being infectious before fever, rash, headache, diarrhea. vomiting symptoms. That is the proper way to contain a virus if you want to save lives and end a pandemic. The proper way to keep the virus from spreading to other lands is with a different quarantine proceedure -- a nation-wide program where everyone isolates themselves from contact with others and where everyone takes precautions to disinfect surfaces where as-yet-undiscovered carriers may have deposited blood or other body fluid. The CDC has not taken these measures. Remember, instead of telling the truth and devising a plan to address the disease as it really is, they are defending themselves with the lie that it is impossible to catch Ebola from an infected person until that person exhibits the symptoms. The lie is told to keep people them from running from the disease -- because the CDC knows that some of those who would run will be as yet asymptomatic carriers. That decision means millions of more deaths wherever the virus takes holds -- because people were told that there was no need to defend themselves from the threat of contagion presented by asymptomatic carriers. I call for national exposure of what the WTC and the CDC are doing; and for a complete change in all leadership -- officials and organizations -- putting in charge persons who will seek to stop the epidemic and give full protection -- protection based on everyone knowing the truth about the virus. The epidemic has already begun in the US -- and the CDC is responding with more deception, with actual suppression of information about who many people are under observation quarantine (now over 300) -- while still not admitting the truth that the virus in hosts is contagious from day one, not from day 11 or day 21. The authorities and the news media are together in the deception -- and on top of the deception strategy they picked to keep us from fleeing the danger -- they are also aware of what the consequences will be for them if their deception of the world -- their deception which has fostered pandemic rather than stopping epidemic. They will fight hard to keep us deceived and in danger. Richard P. Eastman M.S., M.A. Yakima, Washington (Photo at top of page -- a famous French surgeon at a press conference having nothing to do with Ebola virus.)
Posted on: Sun, 09 Nov 2014 17:25:59 +0000
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