Steve signing in at 7:29 AM. Clear skies this morning with temperatures mainly in the 50s, but Table Rock is reporting 47° and the Foothills AP, surprisingly, is the warm spot with 61°. Burke Weather HQ in Valdese reports 57.6° and that is fairly representative of the remaining reporting stations. The back-door front or whats left of it is all the way down along the NC/SC state line this morning, Rock Hill SC and Charlotte are reporting recent (and probably very brief) wind shifts. The front is going to wash out this morning, overcome by building high pressure and southerly flow. Expect afternoon temperatures back in the mid, possibly upper 80s and very little chance of rain. We could see 90° temperatures Thursday with a dry southwest wind and hardly a cloud in the sky, a day more like what you might experience this time of year in Lubbock TX than the foothills and western piedmont of NC. The nights are going to feel comfortable despite the daytime warmth with low temperatures like they were this morning. We may see a bit more cloudiness Friday afternoon along with breezy south to southwest winds ahead of a frontal system that may make it as close to us as middle Tennessee. Thus, any chance of showers or thunderstorms should hold off until Friday evening and be confined to the mountains. By Saturday, the front, or whats left of it, moves into the four-county area bringing scattered showers and thundershowers that could last most of the weekend. I dont see any serious threat for severe storms and the good news is that the clouds and showers will hold afternoon temperatures down to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Basically it looks like the front or whats left of it falls apart over the Carolinas Monday and Tuesday, leaving us with a shotgun 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs again around 80° each day. The long-range forecast models show some interesting developments next Wednesday. While too far in the future to predict with any degree of confidence, it appears another frontal boundary could hook up with some tropical type moisture in the southeast Atlantic Ocean to develop perhaps a hybrid low-pressure near or over eastern NC. Ive checked several forecast discussions but only Greenville-Spartanburg has made mention of this feature. One of the models shows this system hugging the coast all the way up to Cape Cod, the other keeps it more safely offshore. Well have to watch to see whether this is a consistent feature or what the models do with it in future updates. Its still a bit early for tropical weather but sea surface temperatures look fairly warm in the Bahamas and along the Gulf Stream to off Cape Hatteras. We have to see what happens in the coming days.
Posted on: Wed, 07 May 2014 11:54:19 +0000