Steve signing in at 7:52 AM. Mainly clear skies across the 4-county area this morning with temperatures in the mid 60s along the I-40 corridor (66.9° at Burke Weather HQ in Valdese), mid 50s to around 60° in the higher elevations to the northwest. Expect a sunny to partly sunny day today with hot temperatures in the low 90s in the foothills, slightly cooler closer to the mountains. Humidity will be a factor, also, with 42% humidity and a surface temperature of 92°, it will feel quite uncomfortable outside. This morning thunderstorms extend from eastern Indiana through central Kentucky into western Tennessee and central Arkansas. Most of the storms are weakening but it is likely new storms will fire this afternoon as an approaching cold front reaches the middle and lower Ohio Valley. Atmospheric instability and wind shear appear to peak in central and eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and this is where an organized or semi-organized band of thunderstorms could develop and then move southeastward in the direction of the North Carolina mountains. Actually we face a slight risk of thunderstorms later this afternoon if the energy from the thunderstorm complex over western Tennessee holds together. If it does, we could see isolated but potentially strong storms over the mountains and foothills into evening. Right now the chances of this happening are quite low but worth watching nonetheless. A somewhat greater threat lies with the thunderstorms over Kentucky reaching the mountains overnight, say, between 10 PM and midnight. Conditions in our area dont appear to be ideal for sustaining severe storms and it looks like any organized activity should break up once it crosses the Tennessee state line; however, there could still be a few isolated storms with damaging wind potential capable of reaching NW Mcdowell, Burke and northern Caldwell counties. It might be a good idea to activate those weather radios just in case but right now, odds are against any widespread activity. Aforementioned cold front drifts southeastward across the counties Wednesday with showers and a few thunderstorms possible just about anytime during the day. The Storm Prediction Center places us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms, mainly wind damage, but that will depend largely on when the storms fire up. I see indications of some morning activity which would reduce the threat of severe. If the front is south of us Wednesday afternoon, then I dont see much of a strong storm threat at all. It is looking like the front should settle just south of us later Wednesday night into Thursday. While our storm chances wont be zero, if the front behaves as indicated, we should see mostly dry weather Thursday and slightly cooler temperatures in the 80s. By the weekend, isolated to scattered afternoon storms are possible each day with no well-defined trigger, maybe ramping up Monday as the next weak frontal system approaches. Temperatures should be around normal, that is, near 90° afternoons, mid to high 60s overnight with morning sun, some afternoon clouds, and at least the threat of pop-up showers and storms each day.
Posted on: Tue, 08 Jul 2014 12:13:47 +0000
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