Steve signing in at 7:56 AM. Clouds from a disturbance off the NC/SC coast have spread across the three counties this morning, mainly high clouds. Temperatures are cold, ranging from 26 to 29F across the I-40 corridor. The high level cloud shield will slowly work its way eastward and out of the area today, leaving us with partly sunny skies this afternoon and decent temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Clouds start to move back in overnight tonight as temperatures fall back to the freezing mark or slightly below. Low pressure will begin to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight but any precipitation should hold off until Thursday, probably later in the afternoon. A complicated weather situation evolves Thursday night as the GOM low crosses northern Florida and tracks offshore of the Georgia and Carolina coasts Friday morning. If all we had to deal with was this low pressure system, precipitation totals would probably be on the lighter side as the heaviest rains would be east of I-95. However, similar to the February 12 event, a mid and upper level low hangs back over Alabama Thursday night and slowly treks northeastward over the Carolinas; this second system draws moisture in from the offshore surface low and this is where our problem lies. Further complicating things, high pressure to our north sets up another cold air wedge Thursday into Thursday night that doesnt really break down until Friday morning. The wedge is likely to bring colder, near or below freezing temperatures into our area most of Thursday night, with warmer air filtering in aloft from the developing low pressure to our east. The upper level system has the potential to increase our precipitation totals and one inch of mixed precipitation (sleet, freezing rain, and rain) is not out of the question. Needless to say, the details of how all this works out still remain to be ironed out. Heres what I think might happen: during the day Thursday we should reach the low 40s or so, so if anything starts to fall by mid or even late afternoon, it should be rain. After dark, as temperatures begin to drop, the rain could change to a period of sleet that could last until midnight. Then as warmer air filters in aloft, the sleet could change over to several hours of freezing rain early Friday morning before becoming just plain rain by 8 or 9 AM, ending some time Friday afternoon. Sleet is bad enough to travel in, but freezing rain on top of sleet, especially if we have a period or two of heavy precipitation, could be infinitely worse and the Friday morning commute threatens to be a significant hazard if all this plays out as I think it might. The problem is that if the actual tracks of the various systems dont follow the forecast, even by 50 miles or so, it will make a big difference in what we get. If the wedge isnt as strong or stronger than I think it will be, that will affect our weather. And if the mid/upper level system is not as strong as forecast, that will have an impact. So right now, were walking a tightrope, influenced by three potential systems that may or may not do what we think they will. Like Chris says below, the forecast has high bust potential. Once this mess moves eastward and out of the area Friday night, milder temperatures and drier weather is in store for the weekend into early next week with mid to upper 60s for high temperatures each day. Thursday night into Friday, though, could pose a significant winter weather problem for us, both in the mountains and along the I-40 corridor.
Posted on: Wed, 05 Mar 2014 13:21:52 +0000
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