Steve signing in at 8:07 AM. Rain showers continue across the 4 county area this morning with the heaviest rain occurring in Caldwell and eastern Burke Counties. There is a light southeasterly flow at the surface and this has intensified the rain as it moves eastward, especially over Caldwell where there could also be some thunder. I havent noted any cloud to ground lightning strikes on radar, though. Temperatures are in the mid 50s. The rains are moving eastward at 30 miles/hour and should weaken as they get farther away from the foothills and the upslope effect of the southeast wind. By 10 or 11 AM skies should be mostly cloudy and we are likely to see a few breaks in the overcast by about noontime. A trough in Ontario, Canada extends southward all the way to the deep South including the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians. Disturbances are triggering bands of thunderstorms that weaken as they reach the TN/NC state line where there is less instability. That trend is going to continue today and maybe early Wednesday until the Ontario system moves northeastward and eventually out of the picture. There is a pretty potent disturbance over eastern Arkansas that should move into southern Ohio later this afternoon. It appears that this disturbance will trigger two lines of thunderstorms, the first of which should make it to the state line later this afternoon. This line is likely to fall apart as it approaches the Blue Ridge but widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could stray into the four county area, producing cloud to ground lightning during the late afternoon, early evening time frame. There will be a lot of wind shear and turning in the atmosphere at that time but next to no instability, so severe storms are unlikely. Highs today, with cloud cover, may only make it to 70° or so. The second band of showers and storms moves in around midnight. Again, same drill. No instability shows up at Hickory and minimal instability at Asheville, thus there could be some cloud to ground lightning strikes, maybe a wind gust or two, but mainly dying rain showers. A front crosses the area Wednesday morning shunting all this activity to the north and east. After some early morning fog, Wednesday should be mostly sunny with gusty west to northwest winds in the afternoon. It will be warmer with highs possibly reaching the upper 70s. Thursday should be quiet with sunny skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s. Friday will start out nice but a back door cold front could trigger more showers later in the afternoon. Friday could be our warmest day with highs around 80. The weekend looks real iffy right now with a stalled out frontal boundary in the area and a disturbance or two riding along it. Expect occasional showers both Saturday and Sunday with a few thunderstorms possible as well. Temperatures should reach the 70s both days.
Posted on: Tue, 07 Oct 2014 12:25:58 +0000
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