Steve signing in at 8:11 AM. Overcast skies this morning with a band of light rain moving eastward across the area. Both the Foothills and Hickory Regional Airports report light rain with temperatures in the 34° to 35° range. Even Boone reports 34° with light rain at the moment. The rain could be on the verge of mixing with and changing to snow in the higher elevations from Black Mountain to Jonas Ridge and closer to the Tennessee border but most reporting stations, even Jefferson in Ashe County, are still reporting rain. The rain will move eastward this morning into central North Carolina. A wet snowflake or two could mix in along the I-40 as the rain ends but the greatest concentration of winter weather should be in the mountains, especially closer to Tennessee. Newland could get up to 2 inches of snow as this event, aided by several small disturbances and a stronger than usual northwest flow around an intense coastal storm southeast of Cape Cod. Snow showers could continue well into Tuesday in the higher elevations but along the I-40, the northwest winds should dry things out by midday today and skies should begin to clear this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Speaking of the major coastal storm slated to affect the Northeast later today into tonight, one can see it developing already. The system that is bringing our light rain at the moment is located over north central West Virginia but pressures in the Charlotte area are now about as low as they are back in WV. Thunderstorms are developing along the Gulf Stream off the North and South Carolina coasts. In the next few hours it looks like an offshore low will begin to develop about 150 miles east of Wilmington NC, then track slowly north northeastward during the day as it rapidly intensifies or bombs out. Snow is already being reported at Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City, a rain/snow mix in the Nations capital. This low is likely to deepen to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane (28.75 inches) off Cape Cod Tuesday morning, and as much as 30 inches or greater of snow is likely to fall in parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Maine by midday Tuesday with winds of 50 to 60 mph in the interior, possibly exceeding 75 mph on the Cape and offshore islands. Here the impacts are going to be much more muted, perhaps a prolonged period of mountain snow showers, slightly elevated winds and if youre in the Raleigh area, maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon as the atmosphere over central and eastern North Carolina becomes slightly more unstable. Otherwise, not a lot to speak about for the rest of the week. It will be colder, much colder than this past week. Highs Tuesday are likely to top out in the low 40s, mid to upper 40s Wednesday and we may be hard-pressed to see a 50° reading at all throughout the period. Another system moves in Thursday with maybe more light rain for the I-40 and snow showers in the mountains. The forecast models are still arguing about whats going to happen this weekend, especially Superbowl Sunday when a system from the 4 corners could spread more precipitation over the western Carolinas. Right now, if anything occurs, its looking it could start as freezing rain, thanks to a weak cold air wedge, eventually changing over to rain. Right now the confidence in anything happening her next Sunday is quite low so well continue to watch and update.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 13:31:56 +0000
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