Still waiting for GFS and EURO evening runs to review and decide whether to update my potential snowfall map. Should have one out slightly after midnight and Ill be up bright and early around 7 to provide more updates. Lets review some information.... What we know: 1. Our clipper is now working through West Virginia and will head into the DC / Baltimore Metro area overnight and eventually off our coastline and begin an intensification process through Monday and early Tuesday. 2. There is Blocking in place... an area of high pressure situated well to the north that acts as an atmospheric traffic jam will essentially push down upon our low, which allows for the intensification to occur slowly and close to home. 3. As the storm strengthens, precipitation will pick up in intensity, winds will begin to howl out of the north/northeast at 25-30mph, gusting up to 40-45 (especially for the coast) 4. Most of the day on Monday is dry.. there would be some scattered showers out and about in the rain (S+E) or snow (N+W) variety as temperatures will be in the mid 30s... as temps drop below freezing, we quickly see the transition over to snow, becoming heavier as the hours progress. 5. It will be a significant snowmaker for many in South Jersey... a crippling blizzard for parts of Northeast NJ and into Southern New England. 6. Heavy snow, high winds and minor to moderate tidal flooding will batter the coast from Sandy Hook to Cape May. What we dont know: 1. Where the dry slot sets up and how long it holds onto the area. In general as clippers head off the coast and redevelop the sinking air on the west end allows for a lack of precip.. depending on exactly how long this is seen, that will help determine overall accumulations. 2. There will very likely we a sharp cutoff from southwest to northeast. Where does that cutoff happen? As it stands right now, I have the lightest accumulations in Southern Salem county. The slightest shift east or west would have huge consequences for snow totals. Higher amounts could very well get pushed southwest, but for right now the brunt of it seems to be in areas where Blizzard Warnings are in effect.. just to our north. 3. Accumulations... given the factors outlined above, there is still some grey area. This morning I issued a first call snowfall map. I am waiting for the new model guidance to be rendered for me to decide whether to update / tweak my map. Southern Salem, Southern Cumberland and Cape May county likely get short end of the stick with higher amounts through Central Atlantic, Northern Atlantic... (Hammonton should get most out of South Jersey wherever you consider the line to be). More updates to come.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 02:57:30 +0000
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