Storm Update- The storm took the easterly track the we worried could be a concern, do not look out the window for lots of snow, its all about 100 miles east of here. As we mentioned late last night, the track of the system and the ability for the heaviest snow to push west were always a big concern with this system. Just as we lowered our storm forecast last night you are now seeing all other snow forecasts significantly dropping off their snow totals. As we stated in all of our forecasts, while all data pointed towards this potentially being a historic storm (which it certainly will be about 150 miles East of here) for the region the track was always a wild card. The NWS has now reduced some of its warnings, we now have no blizzard warnings in effect. Winter weather advisories are in effect for Ulster,Sullivan,Eastern Greene,Western Columbia and Delaware Counties. Winter storm Warnings are in effect for the remainder of the region. The reason there are still advisories and warnings in place is that light to moderate snow with localized heavier amounts are still expected to impact our region this morning into the early afternoon. This coupled with blowing snow is still expected to bring dangerous travel across parts of the region. We are still questioning how much of the moisture will push east, but light to moderate snowfall amounts are possible. Not until late last night did we feel comfortable pulling the plug on this being a significant snowfall, it was not an easy decision but when we realized that every forecast for our region was about to bust, we atleast wanted to be the first to tell you all it wasnt looking good. In tracking storms for a better parts of 20 years, this is one of the largest failures of the forecast models I have seen in that time, and it will likely bring some major attention to weather forecasting. Our updated snowfall forecast from 11pm last night is now what most other forecasts are showing for our region, we remain skeptical still that even that forecast will verify, but it still stands for now. We at HVW want to always be the first to apologize on behalf of some of the major failures of the forecasting models and our inability to see the flaws earlier. We have always prided ourselves on nailing every detail and we put a lot into this storm, it not coming to fruition is not something we take lightly and there arent many comments that will be any tougher for a forecaster than what we are already beating ourselves up for. When we made the decision last night to be the first to really back off the storm it was literally us saying if this forecast isnt gonna play out, lets at-least, before everyone is sleeping be the ones to call it how it is, be the first to be wrong was the best option. We will have another update later this morning thanks. Images: Current Radar/Last night updated snowfall map.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 10:48:23 +0000
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