Streamflow forecasts for September to November High and near median streamflows for the September to November forecast period are more likely at 21 and 37 locations respectively. Low flows are forecast to be more likely at seven locations in Victoria and New South Wales. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. The climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of the year. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has weakened over recent weeks, with latest values of the index in the neutral range. Climate models are mixed, with some suggesting neutral IOD values for the months ahead, and some indicating negative IOD values may persist until at least mid-spring. Negative IOD events during winter-spring are associated with above-average rainfall over southern Australia and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia. A wetter than normal season is more likely for southeast Australia and the Top End of the Northern Territory. The chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over Queensland and the rest of the Northern Territory. Climate influences include a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a neutral-to-cool tropical Pacific, and locally warm sea surface temperatures.
Posted on: Sat, 28 Sep 2013 04:21:27 +0000
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