Sunday 8:05 Last update of the night..... Your MONDAY WILL BE COLD!!!!---but mostly dry. In fact....we should see a good amount of sunshine! Highs 16-22. Accumulating snowfall looks pretty certain for Monday 8-10PM through Tues AM 6-9AM. Although my overall confidence in the outlook is moderate at best. (60%) SO...SO...SO MANY THINGS CAN GO WRONG when trying to forecast Clippers. These mini-systems have a strong tendency to wobble as they move through the area. Models are in pretty good agreement as far as track is concerned. That means little at this point. We are still 24 hours away! If the center of pressure tracks 25 miles north or south of the projected path.....it can make a huge difference!!!! We dont have copious amounts of moisture to work with Clippers. A 25 mile shift could make the difference between 1 and 4 of snow. I am not sold on the track. However, I will issue an updated projection at the end. Lets talk WINTER STORM WARNING vs. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. Typically, a WARNING is issued when we are expecting widespread 6+ amounts of snow from a storm. (That is the rough ballpark definition). Winter Weather Advisories can be issued for lesser amounts of snow, or freezing rain/sleet. Advisories mean basically to use caution on the roads.....but you should be able to get to your destination without too many problems. A WARNING means you may want to rethink travel plans as road conditions will be dangerous at best. NORMALLY....the NWS holds pretty firm to their criteria when issuing Advisories/Watches/Warnings. (ALL Winter Weather statements/watches/warnings are issued by the local NWS) While I said yesterday that this will likely be an ADVISORY type of storm....let me tell you why we may see a WARNING issued instead.... Snowfall projections on the whole will be less than Warning criteria. However, we will see a dangerous combination of strong winds....moderate to occ heavy snowfall.....and very cold temperatures. Blowing and Drifting will be a real concern especially toward Tuesday AM into Wed. The NWS will have to decide....do they issue a Winter Storm Warning or issue a Winter Weather Advisory for snow....and then issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing/Drifting snow.....along with a Wind Chill Advisory. It is all a complicated process.....and normally, I feel like the NWS Indy is too conservative when it comes to Winter Weather. In the end, it doesnt matter what kind of warning is issued.....it will be what it is....and you need to be ready for the worst in travel conditions. OK.....after looking over the latest in model guidance.....past history of these kinds of Clippers.....I am going to go with an updated projection.....but KNOW that this could look very different by this time tomorrow.....and still could be different from what we end up seeing. Clippers are so darn FICKLE!!!! THIS WILL NOT BE THE STORM of the DECADE.....you wont be snowed in for days!! There isnt enough potential moisture to work with.....and Clippers (hence the name) MOVE FAST! I think that the northern half of the state....Crawfordsville to Carmel to Richmond line and NORTH.....stand the best chance right now of seeing 3.5-6. Somewhere in this zone will be in the bullseye......(Bullseye means the heaviest target!) .....where 6.5 to as much as 7.5 POTENTIAL is there. Snowfall will tail off south of that line....Terre Haute to Greenwood to Metamora should see 2-4.....Bloomington and Columbus and vicinity 1-2. As the track wobbles through....these lines will likely wobble too..... In reality.....it wont matter if you see 4 or 7.....this will be a light--fluffy snow that WILL BLOW AROUND. (Snowmen wont be made with this snow!!) Roads will be difficult to navigate through early Thursday thanks to winds. White Outs a concern. School Closings in the prime snow areas will be likely Tues/Wed. Delays for cold Wed/Thurs possible in places where little snow falls, thanks to wind chills approaching 30 below zero. Can this whole forecast blow up in my face! OF COURSE!!! Mother Nature is the one in control.....all I can do is try like heck to make heads/tails of it all..... The two hardest things to predict is WINTER: FZR/ICE STORMS and CLIPPERS! Now.....to some site protocol. PLEASE DONT ASK....SEND MESSAGES.....asking how much snow your town will see. I count on you....to know where you are at in Indiana.....know a little geography.....and read what is written. I blocked 6 members last winter because they didnt know if they were north or south of Indianapolis! FOR REAL! I will provide you the technical information.....the gut instinct......the facts as best as I can. It is up to YOU to know where you fit into the forecast.
Posted on: Mon, 05 Jan 2015 01:04:31 +0000
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