Surf Zone Forecast Hawaii Southern shores June 27/2013 Numerous extra-tropical cyclones in the 35-65°S latitude band from Tasmania to Easter Island 6/17-22 are producing overlapping episode in Hawaii from within 160-220 degrees. This active pattern is expected to keep above average surf Friday into Saturday, with average surf by Sunday into Tuesday. The Tasman sea was one of the source locations of surf arriving locally 6/26-27. Gales pushed well northward to near the subtropics south of Fiji 6/18-20. Surf from 208-220 degrees is expected to drop on Friday. The area SE of French Polynesia 6/18-20 had a broad, severe gale to storm-force low pressure system with a track to the SE. The fetch area was large, though offset in surf potential due to the track away from Hawaii. Buoy 51004 SE of the Big Island on Thursday morning 6/27 shows an increase in energy of the 15-16 second wave period bands from 160 degrees. This episode is expected to fill in locally late Thursday with moderate to occasionally near high breakers for top spots facing the swell on Friday. Heights should decline sub-moderate on Saturday. The area SE to E of New Zealand had a complex pattern of fetches for Hawaii surf 6/20-22. The Tasman low pressure moved east to a position NE of New Zealand by 6/21. Low-end gales in an area about 3200 nm from Hawaii aimed at targets SE of Hawaii. A stronger area of low pressure near the antarctic ice sheet tracked slowly ENE 6/20-22 to the SE of New Zealand. The strongest winds aimed back toward New Zealand and Fiji, with the dominant swath of swell aimed SW of Hawaii. Both of these source are due on Friday into Saturday 6/28-29 locally, and with the angular spreading aspect, would give a wide directional spread within 180-210 degrees. There were also fetches associated with the more polar low pressure with a direct aim at Hawaii during this period, though they were limited in size and duration. Wave watch iii places the dominant direction from this complex source centered on 190 degrees locally for late Thursday into the weekend. Surf should climb into the moderate to marginally high bracket on Friday from within 160-210 degrees. The overlapping nature of sources should result in more frequent arrival of sets, and the wide range of directions should give set to set variability in breaking pattern. Heights should slowly taper down on Saturday, and drop back to average summer levels by Sunday. A broad area of low-end gales formed SE to E of New Zealand 6/23. The system has been slow moving and long-lived. The long fetch was well aimed at Hawaii over the 185-195 degree band. The limiting factor for local surf was the magnitude of the wind, which did not allow seas to grow much over 16 feet. Small surf from this source is expected to keep average summer surf conditions on Tuesday from 185-195 degrees. Into the long range, the low pressure to the SE of New Zealand reached its deepest pressure at 978 mb on 6/26. Upper-end gales had a good aim at Hawaii over the 180-195 degree band. The low pressure is slowly weakening as it moves east on 6/27, and is predicted to be east of the Hawaii swell window by 6/29. It should bring a moderate episode locally for 7/4-5, dropping to small levels for the weekend of 7/6-7 from 180-195 degrees
Posted on: Fri, 28 Jun 2013 07:26:38 +0000
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