TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE MOMENT: Israel has well-positioned itself for an extensive operation in Gaza. The invasion so far has been relatively modest, going in about 3 kilometers, but that can change fast. Hamas is still firing rockets - about 80 so far today - and Israel has only found 8 tunnels, when there are supposed to be hundreds. The main development that made the current operation possible is the rise to power of Abdel Fatah al-Sissi in Egypt. He sees Hamas as an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood and thus his enemy. Hamas has also burned its bridges with the secular leadership, being accused of military cooperation with the Muslim Brotherhood. Sissi made overtures to Hamas in May just before he was elected, but besides helping with reconciliation talks never eased the closures on Gaza and has kept Hamas from getting the money it needs to pay salaries. Sissis rise made Hamas vulnerable and likely emboldened Netanyahu to act more aggressively. Haaretz revealed last night, for example, that the very same Hamas members whom Israel arrested in the wake of the kidnapping of the three boys, had just been praised by the IDF for going straight. Now, Israel is busy trumping up charges to hold them in jail. Analysts quote Netanyahus statement that Israel exhausted all its diplomatic options and assuming that Israel was hoping Hamas would accept a cease-fire. I still think they got it wrong. Netanyahu is smart enough to be aware that in a zero-sum game of ethnonational conflict, ethnic rebels presume that if their enemy accepts a brokered cease-fire that it must be to their own detriment. Ethnonational rivals also tend to accept offers that they know cross their opponents red lines. As I wrote the night the cease-fire was offered, its terms never met Hamas minimal demands, so it made no sense that they would accept. Escalation was bound to follow, for where diplomacy fails violence fills the vacuum. So the logical next step after the dud of a cease-fire offer fell through would be another round of escalation. If Israel had not wanted to escalate, it would have engaged in a tit-for-tat strategy, which would have meant a much more limited response to the initial rocket strikes and an acceptance of the quiet-for-quiet formula. But by this time Netanyahu was committed to the ground invasion, which was approved on Tuesday. If Israel were to back down and allow Egypt to sweeten the cease-fire terms for Hamas - which would have been the true meaning of exhausting all diplomatic options it would lose its deterrence power. Thus, it had to demonstrate a credible commitment to its threat of invasion, which was made by calling up reserves in the first place. So, everything fell into place and Netanyahu could order an invasion of Gaza with support from the international community because he had accepted the Egyptian proposal and the support of Egypt, which officially blamed Hamas for Israels response last night and will keep the heat on Hamas from the South. And to top it all, this strange shooting down of the Malaysian jet over Ukraine takes Gaza off the headlines. It is undeniable that this incident has greater geopolitical repercussions, and it is somewhat symbolic that the pro-Russian rebels killed more civilians with one anti-aircraft missile than Israel has killed in Gaza after 10 days of aerial attacks. Thus, expect Israel to stay a while. Theres no pressure for it to leave and lots to do in terms of tunnels to clear, rockets to destroy (I wonder what happened to the 20 that were discovered the other day inside an UNRWA school) and terrorists to round up. Shabbat shalom.
Posted on: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 15:55:43 +0000
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